#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Tom Lee's "bearish" analyst: A "risk clearing event" may occur in the first half of the year, leading to increased volatility

Fundstrat Digital Asset Strategy Head Sean Farrell stated in an interview that Bitcoin is still projected to reach $1 million in the long term, with strong structural tailwinds for quality crypto assets. The year 2026 will be a "trader's market," and a "risk clearing event" may occur in the first half, causing volatility to intensify, with Bitcoin potentially falling back to $60,000 (deep value zone, "buy on dip" opportunity).
Liquidity improvements, policy stimulus, and AI-driven growth in the second half will present excellent opportunities.
Regarding Ethereum, Sean Farrell believes ETH is viewed by traditional asset managers as "small-cap tech stocks." Benefiting from the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization narrative (Q3 2025 YoY growth of 145%, bringing higher-quality assets into DeFi and enhancing value capture). Therefore, his year-end target price is approximately $4,500.
For SOL, Sean Farrell thinks it will compete with ETH for RWA market share but lacks support from traditional asset managers. Its advantages include high throughput, upgrades (such as Alpenglow, Firedancer), and potential inflation reduction. Price expectations: falling back to $50-$75 in Q1/Q2, then rebounding to $220-$260.
After the risk clearing, altcoins will be "an excellent cocktail"; following ETH's outperformance of BTC, altcoins with reliable tokenomics and solid traction, especially those related to RWA, will perform significantly. Previously, Tom Lee stated in an interview that "Bitcoin may hit a new all-time high before the end of January 2026," while Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell mentioned in a report on the 20th that "Bitcoin may fall to $60,000-$65,000 in the first half of 2026, and Ethereum may drop to $1,800-$2,000."