Tariff decisions become uncertain, geopolitical conflicts support the bottom line, gold faces triple tests

The World Gold Council’s latest report provides a clear outlook on gold market trends. In simple terms, gold faces short-term volatility pressures but remains supported in the long term. More importantly, the report highlights three key variables that are redefining the logic of gold’s movement.

How the Three Major Factors Affect Gold

According to the World Gold Council’s analysis, the core factors influencing gold’s future trends include:

• Commodity Fluctuations: The surge in precious metals (silver, platinum, etc.) in December, combined with the rebalancing of the commodity index, may trigger market volatility in the short term
• Policy Variables: The upcoming Supreme Court decision on tariffs could significantly impact U.S. trade policy, potentially providing a support for gold
• Geopolitical Support: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts (latest example: U.S. actions in Venezuela) offer support to gold prices

Short-term Volatility vs. Long-term Logic

The core view of this report is worth noting: while the market may experience fluctuations in the short term due to commodity index rebalancing, gold is still expected to follow its own operational logic. In other words, short-term noise will not change the fundamental support for gold.

The impact of tariff policies is the most complex. Once the Supreme Court’s ruling is announced, it could trigger changes in the dollar’s trend, thereby affecting gold pricing. Generally speaking, if trade policies become more accommodative, the dollar may weaken, which is positive for gold; conversely, the opposite applies. But in any case, these are potential supports for gold.

Geopolitical Bottom Support

In contrast, geopolitical conflicts provide more direct support for gold. Amid rising global uncertainty, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset continues. The latest U.S. actions in Venezuela are just a microcosm of this trend, reflecting the tense international situation.

Summary

Gold is currently at an intersection of multiple forces: short-term commodity factors may cause volatility, but policy and geopolitical factors are providing support. Tariff decisions have become a new focus of observation, while geopolitical conflicts offer a bottom support for gold prices. For investors interested in the gold market, the next steps should focus on the Supreme Court’s rulings and further developments in geopolitical tensions.