2026-01-08 14:28:53

January 8th (UTC+8), emerging markets experienced a second consecutive day of decline. Geopolitical risks intensified, dampening market sentiment, and traders chose to stay on the sidelines ahead of key US employment data release.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index fell by 0.8%, marking the largest decline since mid-December last year. The currency markets were also unsettled, with the currencies of Thailand, South Korea, and South Africa bearing the brunt.

Interestingly, the bond market has had its strongest start ever. Poland, following Hungary and Turkey, also seized the low borrowing cost window, accelerating bond issuance.

Currently, all eyes are on the non-farm payrolls data due on Friday — this set of data could guide the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions. Once rate cut expectations are confirmed, emerging markets are likely to continue their gains this year. A fund manager at a London asset management firm stated that the US seems to have confirmed the direction of rate cuts, which could mean the dollar continues to weaken, always a positive signal for emerging markets.

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DegenWhisperer

· 01-08 16:06

Geopolitics is stirring up trouble again. Can this non-farm payroll data really save the day... Speaking of, the bond market is moving in the opposite direction—what's going on? Waiting for Friday, either a complete reversal or further decline, it's that simple. The US dollar weakens, allowing emerging markets to breathe; right now, it's a gamble on whether the Federal Reserve will loosen its grip. The exchange rates of Thailand, South Korea, and South Africa are crying; who asked you to stand at the forefront of the storm? Damn, we have to look at the US's attitude to act—this is fate...

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MetadataExplorer

· 01-08 14:58

Geopolitical conflicts always lead to emerging markets taking the blame, so true. Non-farm payroll data is the real savior; let's see the results on Friday. The bond market is booming, but the stock market is still taking a hit. The expectation of interest rate cuts, to put it nicely, is hope; to be blunt, it's gambling. Only when the dollar weakens do emerging markets have a chance; now it's all about how the Federal Reserve will perform. Thai, Korean, and South African currencies are taking turns falling; this rhythm is a bit brutal. Everyone is waiting for non-farm payroll data; whoever acts first will lose money.

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AirdropDreamBreaker

· 01-08 14:49

Geopolitics causing trouble again, and our emerging markets are getting hit? It's always like this—only after the non-farm payroll data is released do we find out the direction... If the expectation of interest rate cuts is so certain, why is the market still falling? It all feels fake. Bonds are actually taking off; that group in Poland really knows how to buy the dip. See you on non-farm payroll Friday. At that time, whether the dollar is strong or weak is up to us. The Fed's move needs to be watched carefully; otherwise, the rally in emerging markets might turn sour again.

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SignatureVerifier

· 01-08 14:41

tbh the nfp data friday is literally the only thing that matters rn... everything else is just noise until we see those numbers. technically speaking, the whole "soft dollar = em rally" thesis requires proper validation—we've seen this narrative collapse before when actual data drops

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BakedCatFanboy

· 01-08 14:39

With the geopolitical situation so tense, still daring to buy the dip in emerging markets, truly a brave warrior. Non-farm payroll data was just released this week, and now you're betting on rate cuts? That's too optimistic. Bonds are going crazy, stocks are falling—this move is really brilliant. Is the rate cut expectation a dream or is it really coming... I'm a bit unsure. The US dollar really needs to weaken for emerging markets to turn around; it's too early to say now. With the Thai Baht and Korean Won so battered, who still dares to touch them? Wait until Friday; the data is what truly matters.

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