#密码资产动态追踪 The start of 2026 sees the US stock market under pressure, and ultimately, it's the employment data causing the turbulence.

The S&P 500 has pulled back from its 2025 highs, and the reason is straightforward—November's unemployment rate surged to 4.6%, the highest in four years. Compared to the 3.5% at the beginning of the year, the increase is quite significant. Cracks are appearing in the labor market, and investors are beginning to worry about a recession, leading to panic selling.

Why did the unemployment rate rise so quickly? Two main pressures: first, tariffs increased corporate costs, dampening hiring demand; second, while the AI boom has boosted tech stocks, employment growth in other sectors has noticeably slowed. Job vacancies in November fell to a 14-month low, with 0.91 jobs per job seeker, indicating a sluggish market. Although the Federal Reserve cut rates at the end of the year to stabilize employment, further easing in 2026 looks limited, and the risk of stagflation is re-emerging.

Historically, rising unemployment is often a precursor to recession. Although this adjustment has been relatively mild, US stocks with high valuations are especially sensitive to bad news, and short-term volatility has increased significantly. The key focus is the January employment report—if the data rebounds, it could signal a turning point; if it continues to worsen and breaks above 4.6%, it may trigger a larger correction.

For crypto investors, $BTC and other assets tend to follow macro sentiment. In an environment of declining US stocks and weakening economic outlooks, risk assets remain under pressure. Currently, it’s important to monitor labor market signals and appropriately increase defensive allocations, avoiding being swayed by short-term fluctuations.