#MSCI未排除数字资产财库企业纳入范围 January 8 Market Review: Post-Stop-Loss Arrangement for Long Positions

**The Truth About the Rebound — Not a Bottom-Fishing Opportunity**

Yesterday’s rebound, frankly, was a liquidity pullback created by market makers. Don’t be fooled by the rapid rise; there’s no fundamental improvement backing it. It’s mainly a confluence of short-term factors: the US policy temporarily not turning hawkish, profit-taking by previous bulls, and a technical rebound triggered by short covering after a sharp decline. The result? Prices fall quickly and bounce back just as fast, but this rebound lacks strength.

There’s no positive news to support a bottom. No policy interventions, no large capital inflows, no signs of trend reversal. At best, the rebound is a price correction; the capital side simply isn’t buying it. From a macro perspective, the Fed is holding rates steady but not turning dovish, and US policies remain cautious. Such an environment is unfavorable for risk assets. Achieving a sustained rebound? That’s quite challenging.

From a market-making perspective, the rebound signals are somewhat unusual: one is the high-frequency “painting gate” trend, with rapid price pulls and pushes designed to create trading opportunities rather than genuine position building; the other is the continuous shrinking of volume during the rebound, indicating insufficient buying interest.

**Technical Structure: A Pattern of Downward Consolidation**

Bitcoin, on the daily chart, hit the upper boundary of the 94,500 range and then adjusted downward. The 94,500 level is the upper boundary, 84,500 is the lower boundary, and 90,000 is the midpoint. Currently, the price hovers around 90,000. If this support breaks, it’s likely to drop directly to 84,500.

Ethereum faces resistance at the 3,320 level. The upper boundary is 3,320, the lower boundary is 2,770, and the midpoint is 3,030. The price has approached the 3,030 support level. Once broken, it will likely retest 2,770.

Overall, this is a typical pattern of downward consolidation. The key resistance levels haven’t been broken. Ethereum’s movement is still led by Bitcoin, with no signs of independent strength. The next 24 hours are expected to show: weak rebounds and sideways movement with a bearish bias.

**Short-Term Trading Strategy**

Bitcoin: Short in the 90,500-91,000 range, targeting the 89,500-88,500 zone, with a stop-loss above 91,500.

Ethereum: Short in the 3,130-3,160 range, targeting 3,030-2,950, with a stop-loss above 3,200.