Gold reaches new heights: 53 record highs in 2025, with even greater surprises in 2026

2026-01-08 14:32:57

2025 is the Year of Gold’s Carnival. Global investors have witnessed 53 record-breaking highs in gold prices, gold ETFs have experienced unprecedented capital inflows, and for the first time, gold has surpassed US Treasuries in global official reserves. As we enter 2026, expectations of Fed rate cuts are heating up, central banks continue their gold accumulation spree, and this gold feast is far from over.

The Triple Explosion of Gold in 2025

Gold prices hit historic highs, global capital floods in

The performance of gold in 2025 has been astonishing. According to the World Gold Council, gold prices hit a new record 53 times throughout the year, with an increase of about 70%, soaring from $2,600 per ounce at the start of the year to $4,500 per ounce by year-end. This is not just a numerical leap but has also ignited a global wave of investor participation.

Gold ETFs have become the direct beneficiaries. According to the latest reports, global investors injected unprecedented amounts of capital into gold ETFs, with North American funds contributing the majority of global inflows. Meanwhile, gold holdings in Asia nearly doubled, and Europe also showed significant demand. This indicates that from the Americas to Asia and Europe, gold is becoming a consensus in global asset allocation.

Central bank gold accumulation is unstoppable, gold surpasses US Treasuries to become historic

Even more noteworthy are the changes at the official reserve level. According to the World Gold Council, by the end of 2025, the total official gold reserves of countries worldwide exceeded 900 million troy ounces (about 28,000 tons). Based on year-end gold prices, this reserve’s total value reached $3.93 trillion, surpassing the scale of overseas official holdings of US Treasuries (about $3.88 trillion) for the first time.

This is the first surpass since 1996, marking a historic turning point in the global reserve asset landscape. Gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, has officially upgraded to the largest asset class in global official reserves, even surpassing US Treasuries backed by US national credit.

Three driving forces support the surge in gold prices

The remarkable performance of gold is driven by three forces:

Driving Factors	Specific Manifestations
Safe-haven demand	Escalating global trade disputes, rising geopolitical tensions, financial market volatility, significantly boosting gold’s appeal as a safe asset
Trend capital	The continuous surge in gold prices attracts a large amount of trend-following capital entering the market
Macro environment	Falling US Treasury yields, a weakening dollar, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold

The “De-dollarization” Choice of Global Central Banks

The continuous accumulation by central banks is no coincidence. According to the latest data, China has increased its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue adding in 2026. This reflects deep strategic considerations about asset security.

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US weaponized the dollar (freezing Russian foreign exchange reserves), sounding an alarm for global central banks. Over-reliance on dollar assets carries political risks. Meanwhile, US federal debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with persistent deficits raising concerns about long-term debt repayment capacity.

In contrast, gold, as a non-sovereign, non-counterparty risk physical asset, is more favored for its stability in complex environments. Central banks increase gold holdings to diversify reserve risks and strengthen the resilience and autonomy of their financial systems.

2026: Rate Cuts Will Add Rocket Fuel

Entering 2026, the logic for gold’s rise has not weakened but gained new support. According to the latest forecasts, the probability of the Fed unexpectedly cutting rates has soared, with institutions predicting 2-3 rate cuts throughout the year, totaling 50-75 basis points.

The negative correlation between gold and real interest rates has never failed. Rate cuts mean lower opportunity costs for holding gold, and easing dollar liquidity will further depress the appeal of dollar assets. Historically, during the 2007 subprime crisis, rate cuts drove gold prices up by 41%. In 2025, three rate cuts pushed London gold above $4,500 per ounce. If rate cuts exceed expectations in 2026, massive capital flows are likely to shift from dollar assets to gold, repeating the historical pattern of “rate cut tide equals gold price surge.”

Additional factors supporting gold prices include:

Continued heating of central bank gold purchases, with gold accounting for 20% of global reserves
The US economy facing a 35% recession risk, with geopolitical conflicts becoming normalized
Ongoing concerns over US debt exceeding 120% of GDP

Summary

The gold feast of 2025 has just begun, and 2026 could be even more exciting. 53 record highs, ETF capital inflows, surpassing US Treasuries as the top official reserve asset—these figures reflect a profound shift in global asset allocation logic. Central bank accumulation signals a trend of de-dollarization, while expectations of Fed rate cuts provide new upward momentum for gold prices.

From a safe-haven tool to the reserve king, gold is undergoing a transformation of its identity. Whether institutional investors, retail investors, or central banks, all are voting with real gold. In 2026, this trend is expected to deepen further.

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