Evening Market Brief: Jobs Data Unsteady, How Will US Stocks Move Tonight?

Having traded for many years, watching the market tonight feels like watching a pot of soup that hasn't fully boiled—key data points are stuck in a neutral zone, neither good nor bad.

Let's start with recent employment data. This week, the ADP employment report showed 41,000 new jobs added in the US. How should we interpret this number? Slightly below expectations, but better than last month. This kind of half-dead state is the most dangerous—bad enough to prevent the Fed from acting immediately, but not good enough to completely dispel rate cut expectations. What’s the result? The entire interest rate market is stuck in indecision, with no clear direction.

What really complicates matters is that the whole market is waiting for tomorrow’s "big non-farm payroll" data. If the data looks good and employment rebounds strongly, rate cut expectations could be pushed into Q2 next year. Under this suspense, risk assets have pulled back. Just look at today’s tech stocks—those high-beta assets (like cryptocurrencies) led the decline.

Another issue is the internal power struggle within the Federal Reserve. Some are worried about a resurgence of inflation, while others are focused on employment data calling for rate cuts. The new chairperson has not been confirmed, and policy directions are as unpredictable as opening a blind box. This uncertainty is the biggest drag on market sentiment.

Interestingly, the market has shown clear divergence. Traditional sectors like defense and energy are actually gaining—on one hand, Trump has pushed several major initiatives, and on the other, Q3 GDP data exceeded expectations. The result? Tech stocks are soft, defensive sectors are strong, and the index is likely to see a seesaw pattern.

In short, tonight’s market probably won’t see any breakthrough direction. It’s more likely to be a repeated test within this oscillating range until the non-farm payroll data is released tomorrow night. Instead of guessing blindly, it’s better to stay calm, observe the data when it arrives, and see how main cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH react. The market moves so fast that sometimes waiting is the best strategy.