2026-01-08 14:34:43

Recently, looking at ETH's trend, the daily chart has yet to break through the resistance, while the 4-hour and 1-hour candlestick charts have already clearly shown a downward rhythm. The question is—will the market really follow this trend?

To be honest, this question triggered my reflection on trading methods. When many of us place orders, are we really calculating probabilities with our brains, or are we gambling based on intuition? Which of these approaches can truly improve the win rate? I think it's worth a good discussion.

My personal inclination is the trend probability approach. Instead of being annoyed by the noise on the chart, it's better to find the positions with the highest probability and amplify trend opportunities. Let the data speak, rather than relying on luck. But I also admit that everyone's risk tolerance and trading style are different. How do you usually make your choices?

ETH1,53%

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BTCWaveRider

· 01-11 14:07

The daily chart remains steady, but the smaller timeframes are already singing the song of decline. We really need to be cautious about this wave. Relying on gut feelings to gamble has long resulted in margin calls. It's better to follow the data. Probabilistic strategies sound good, but executing them really tests your mental resilience. That's why most people end up losing money; knowing the principles and actually applying them are two different things. I think the key issue is the timing of entries; if you can't pinpoint it accurately, it's all in vain. Lowering risk tolerance is a sincere statement—not everyone can hold through the downturn. Instead of obsessing over how the market will move, it's better to ask yourself if you can stick to your discipline. Data is just data; the market will still throw some surprises. Multi-timeframe resonance is more reliable; there are too many fake signals on smaller timeframes.

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CryptoDouble-O-Seven

· 01-10 07:15

As long as the daily chart hasn't broken out, stay steady. Don't be fooled by the noise on the 4-hour chart; the real opportunity is in the pullback.

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MEVictim

· 01-08 21:56

Don't mess around if the daily chart doesn't break the resistance. There's too much downside noise on smaller timeframes, making it easy to get trapped.

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CryptoMom

· 01-08 15:04

If the daily chart doesn't break the resistance, don't rush to short. I've fallen into too many traps with this routine. I think multi-timeframe resonance is more reliable; looking at only the hourly chart makes it easy to get crushed. Probability theory sounds professional, but when it comes to placing orders, you still have to trust your intuition. Data is just for reference. Wait, no, your thinking pattern kind of resembles those tactics used to cut leeks... To put it simply, as long as stop-loss and risk management are in place, you can make money with any method. I just want to ask, how did you confirm this resistance level? Could it be an illusion you just saw yourself?

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GateUser-beba108d

· 01-08 15:04

The daily chart can't break through, and the hourly chart is going down again. This is the easiest time to get trapped. I actually think the probability of this method sounds pretty good, but when it comes to real trading, you still need to rely on market intuition; data is just for reference.

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HypotheticalLiquidator

· 01-08 14:54

If the daily chart doesn't break resistance, don't chase short; multi-timeframe resonance is the key. Don't be fooled by the noise on the 1-hour chart. ETH's recent downtrend? The health factor tells me a leverage liquidation wave is coming soon. Be cautious of chain reactions and liquidations. Probabilistic selection sounds good, but when the borrowing rate soars, who can calmly calculate the data... Everyone is gambling. The true win rate comes from risk control thresholds, not from predicting right or wrong—I bet most of you will lose at the moment of deleveraging. Market noise? That's a sign of systemic risk. Once market sentiment reverses, it's a domino effect.

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GateUser-74b10196

· 01-08 14:52

As long as the daily chart doesn't break the level, I won't believe in a bearish trend. The 4-hour chart has too much noise; we need to look at the bigger picture. Betting based on intuition is a gambler's mentality; sooner or later, you'll have to pay tuition. Probability theory sounds good, but the hard part is execution. A single set of trades can get messy.

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StealthDeployer

· 01-08 14:42

If the daily line doesn't break, it's a false dip. Don't be fooled by minor noise on smaller timeframes. Relying on gut feeling for trading has long led to liquidation; data and luck are in completely different leagues. The probabilistic optimization approach is good, but very few people can actually execute it. This wave of ETH depends on the weekly chart's performance; short-term levels will have to give way.

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