Good evening, friends. Today’s market movements are quite interesting—there was a push-up followed by a pullback, then a new low. It surged up to 4466.39 and immediately pulled back, with the lowest dropping to 4407.80. Currently, it’s hovering around 4410. Honestly, this is somewhat different from the early expectations.

Where is the problem? The selling pressure at the 4500 level is much fiercer than expected. Coupled with the unclear direction of Federal Reserve policies, market sentiment has turned cautious. Short-term funds, seeing the situation isn’t right, quickly run for the exits. This wave directly pierced the support zone mentioned in the early analysis.

But there’s an interesting point here—the 90-day moving average’s resistance was fully reflected in the intraday market. Gold hit 4466.39 and then started to face resistance. More importantly, although the bullish entry zone was broken through, the key level of 4400 has not yet been lost, and buying resistance below is quite strong. In simple terms, 4400 has become a critical defensive line for the bulls.

From a macro perspective, the basic logic remains unchanged: the Federal Reserve’s cycle of interest rate cuts starting in 2026 and the medium- to long-term depreciation of the US dollar are still intact. However, the initial jobless claims data for the week of January 3rd in the US has heightened market expectations, causing many to hold back and watch the developments. Short-term funds took profits early, which pushed the gold price down. Technically, the daily chart has broken below the 7-day moving average support. On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, after a rally and pullback, prices are now consolidating at lower levels. The range of the bulls and bears’ contest has narrowed to between 4400 and 4450.

Adjusting the trading strategy: maintain a cautious stance around 4400 with light positions. When the price rebounds to around 4440-4445 and faces resistance, consider shorting with a stop-loss above 4450, targeting 4400-4385. If the price pulls back and stabilizes around 4385-4400, consider going long with a stop-loss below 4380, targeting 4440-4430.

These are just personal opinions and for reference only, not investment advice.