2026-01-08 14:36:31

Since entering this market in 2016, I have personally experienced several complete cycle changes. Recently, when Bitcoin fell from $120,000 to $110,000, I chose to liquidate most of my positions. This decision was actually based on a pattern I have repeatedly verified.

Why am I confident to do this? Because I have followed the same logic in 2017 and 2021, and both times the results were good.

The halving cycle of Bitcoin is an unavoidable topic. The next halving is in 2028, but history shows that each bull market driven by halving pushes prices higher, followed inevitably by a sharp correction. The data is straightforward: after the 2013 bull market top, the price plummeted over 80% the following year. After the 2017 peak, the next year saw a decline of nearly 85%. In the 2021 cycle, the correction at the end of 2022 was also around 80%.

This cycle will restart after the 2024 halving. Assuming that in 2025, the price surges to around $120,000, which could be the high point of this cycle, even with a moderate 50% correction, the price by the end of 2026 could fall to $60,000–$70,000. Considering the maximum historical drawdown, it’s even possible to reach the $40,000–$50,000 range.

But this is not bad news; it’s just the market’s self-correcting mechanism at work. Deep corrections can cool down overheated market sentiment and create opportunities for those looking to buy the dip. Long-term players should understand that this is just a phase within the cycle.

So if by the end of 2026, the price really drops back to $60,000 or lower, it’s not surprising. The key is to look at the bigger picture, plan rationally according to your own pace, and not be scared by short-term fluctuations. Market opportunities will always come; patience is all that’s needed.

BTC0,12%

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PensionDestroyer

· 4h ago

The timing of the liquidation was quite good, but I think the drop from 120,000 to 110,000 isn't harsh enough. History is so clear now; an 80% correction is unavoidable, it all depends on who can hold on. Reaching 40,000-50,000 by the end of 2026 wouldn't surprise me at all; that's when the real buying opportunity will come. To be honest, compared to market timing, I'm more afraid of a mental breakdown—most people get wiped out during the correction. I've seen this logic three times already; I wouldn't doubt it if it happens again.

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LiquidationWizard

· 01-09 11:39

120,000 clear-out, is it really the end? I think it's still a bit early. Historical data is right here; it all depends on who can survive the bloodbath of 2026.

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OnchainFortuneTeller

· 01-08 15:06

This guy nailed the rhythm in 2017 and 2021, and now he's talking about patterns again? I just want to see if it can stay effective this time... But to be fair, an 80% correction is no joke. 60,000-70,000 is still moderate, but if it really drops to 40,000-50,000, I think a lot of people will lose their composure. To clear most of your positions in this move, how many times must you have failed before you can be so confident? Long-term, there's no problem, but if it really drops that hard in 2026, will those who hold on be able to endure until then? That's the real test.

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StealthDeployer

· 01-08 14:56

This guy is not wrong. I did the same in 2017, and I'm still lying here haha. Clearing out positions does require some courage, but it’s even more important to have data support. However, I’m curious—will it really drop to 40,000-50,000 this time... I feel like big institutions won’t let them buy the dip that cheaply. History repeats itself, but it’s never exactly the same—that’s what I fear the most. Waiting until 2026, I bet your logic can still withstand public opinion then. Long-term holding is real, but who can guarantee they can really endure that kind of drop? Actually, I just want to hear—how sure are you that 120,000 is the top? Like an 8 or 9 out of 10?

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OnChainDetective

· 01-08 14:47

Wait, you're going to liquidate when it drops from 120,000 to 110,000? That's only an 8% fluctuation... I need to dig into the on-chain data at this time point, I feel like some big players are hinting at something. By the way, have you actually run a complete backtest with whale transfer records, or are you just looking at candlestick charts? I understand this logic, but I'm not fully convinced. What data model is the assumption of bottoming out at 40,000-50,000 in 2026 based on? Can you share the wallet cluster analysis results? It's easy to say, but who can resist buying the dip by the end of 2026... I've seen too many "long-term players" end up as bagholders.

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alpha_leaker

· 01-08 14:37

Again and again, talking about the halving cycle. Feels like I've heard it a hundred times. Dare to bet that 2026 will really drop like this? Historical patterns are easy to talk about. How are those who have cleared their positions feeling now? Are they waiting to buy the dip or already FOMO?

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