Bitcoin has recently fallen into an interesting duality. The price retraced to $89,962, and technically, signs of weakness are indeed emerging—bearish indicators continue to send warning signals, with EMA crossovers, negative MACD, and RSI below 50 all suggesting ongoing downward pressure. Many analysts believe the market is gradually entering a consolidation phase, which aligns with the recent increased volatility and mixed signals.

However, there is a contradiction: institutional sentiment is not as pessimistic as it seems. On one hand, the outflows from ETF funds have created resistance, and some large holders are taking profits, which has dampened buying enthusiasm. On the other hand, the optimism among long-term institutional investors remains intact, with confidence in holding even strengthening—long-term holders' selling volume has dropped back to 2023 levels, indicating that truly capable players are still holding firm. One major holder possesses $91.7 million worth of BTC, and such a level of holdings itself is a bullish signal.

From a fundamental perspective, positive factors are continuously accumulating. The regulatory environment is becoming clearer, and Florida is planning to establish a Bitcoin reserve fund, news that supports the long-term growth logic. Bernstein’s forecast is quite insightful—by the end of 2026, Bitcoin could surge to $150,000.

Technically, the $89,500 to $90,000 zone and the lower band of the Bollinger Bands have become key support levels. After this round of decline, the market is highly likely to rebound here, providing some opportunities for short-term traders.

Overall, the short-term technical pressure and capital divergence are not enough to negate the long-term upward trend. The consolidation phase might instead be a preparatory stage before a continued rise after a correction.