Good news for the US economy. Fitch has recently upgraded its growth forecasts for the US for this year and next—2025 GDP growth has been raised from the previous forecast of 1.8% to 2.1%, and 2026 has also been adjusted from 1.9% to 2.0%. This adjustment is mainly due to the delayed data from the government shutdown at the end of last year being incorporated recently.

However, inflation remains a bit troublesome. The December inflation rate jumped to 3.0%, significantly up from 2.7% in November. The problem is that the price increase effects caused by tariffs have not yet fully transmitted, and it is expected that inflation will further rise to 3.2% by the end of 2026.

On the employment front, things are relatively stable. Although the employment growth is slowing down, the decline in labor force growth offsets this impact. The average unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.6% in 2026, roughly the same as now.

The most important thing for the crypto world is—Federal Reserve policy. Based on the above situation, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, bringing the upper limit of the federal funds rate down from the current level to 3.25%. This means liquidity will gradually loosen, potentially supporting asset prices.