Since yesterday, the global markets have collectively moved downward—gold fell, silver fell, Asian stock markets fell, US stock futures fell, and Bitcoin also declined. It looks alarming, but there is actually a logic behind this decline.

**The key is the simultaneous rise of the US dollar and bond yields**

Unlike previous declines, this time the US dollar and US Treasury yields are rising together. This signal is more noteworthy than the stock market decline itself—it indicates that market expectations for Fed rate cuts are weakening. As long as the dollar and yields continue to rise, don’t expect a rebound in precious metals; risk assets can only play a structural game.

**No major events, no extreme volume, just profit-taking**

The current decline seems quite orderly, with various assets moving down slightly in sync, but trading volume has not spiked abnormally. Simply put, everyone is taking profits, and there’s no single negative catalyst causing chaos. Investors are now waiting—waiting for what? Waiting for the non-farm payroll data this Friday, and also waiting for the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariffs. If tariffs are overturned, US bond yields will soar, and the stock market might shake again. In the face of this uncertainty, it’s very rational not to bet on a direction.

**Gold and silver prices could accelerate at any moment**

Although the decline in gold and silver prices is similar to yesterday’s, this is only superficial; a real acceleration in decline could happen in an instant.

**Tonight’s US stock market close will determine the subsequent atmosphere**

Sometimes intraday volatility cannot be trusted; the closing state at the end of the day truly reflects market sentiment. If US stocks start accelerating downward at the close, we need to reassess the overall risk appetite. Bloomberg reported earlier that US stock futures have eased, but certainty is gradually fading, and the cost of making mistakes is rising step by step.