The debate over the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has recently heated up again, with opinions in the community divided into two camps.

One camp believes that this cycle theory has already become invalid. Their reasoning is straightforward—ETF inflows of $57 billion have completely changed the structure of market participants, and the traditional cycle patterns naturally no longer apply. However, the other camp insists that the cycle's vitality is far from as fragile as thought, and they point out a detail that is quite intriguing.

Looking at specific data: on November 21, 2025, Bitcoin drops to $80,524; going back two cycles, on November 21, 2022, the bottom price was $15,460. The same date, two cycle bottoms. While the probability of such coincidence seems random, its repeated occurrence is hard to explain away. From a historical pattern perspective, this timing does have a certain subtlety.

Currently, the market is focused on January 2026. There is a legislative plan related to the structure of the crypto market that will be formally reviewed on January 15, and this policy milestone is very likely to become another key point in this cycle.

Whether ETF has changed the game or if the rhythm of history still persists, perhaps the policy outcome this month will provide an answer.