The recent actions of Federal Reserve Board member Milan have truly left the market puzzled.

Here's what happened: just a couple of days ago, he confidently gave a clear expectation of about 150 basis points of rate cuts by 2026, then suddenly changed his tune, saying "I have no idea about my future at the Federal Reserve." This stark contrast is a bit absurd—on one hand, a monetary policy signal that influences global capital allocation, and on the other, a self-exemption claiming "personal position is uncertain." These two statements instantly threw the market into confusion.

Why is this so critical? Because statements from Federal Reserve officials directly impact the USD exchange rate and capital flows. A 150 basis point move is not insignificant; it could reshape global investors' expectations for future interest rate environments. Now, no one can tell for sure: is this an internal consensus within the Fed, or just Milan's personal whim?

What’s more, the market is now at a loss. If you take this as an official signal, you risk being caught off guard if policy suddenly shifts. If you discount it, you worry about missing the real policy stance. This "leak first, then disavow" approach undoubtedly adds more fog to the already uncertain outlook of monetary policy.

So, traders need to ponder: is there some subtle game going on within the Fed? Will other officials follow up to confirm this 150 basis point expectation? The future direction of the USD still requires close observation.