The Fed's thoughts of cutting interest rates are gradually cooling down, and as a result, the ETF has recently hit two consecutive daily limit-downs, with nearly $700 million in net outflows—this is the market's answer paid in real money, and funds are starting to pull back. Bitcoin has dropped from 95k all the way down to around 90k, and many people in the group and in front of the screens are asking: Is this bull market over?

Don't judge too quickly. From the candlestick structure, the daily chart is currently oscillating repeatedly between 85k and 94k, which is a typical consolidation zone. In other words, as long as the 85k support level isn't broken, the overall upward trend hasn't been truly disrupted. But do we expect an immediate V-shaped reversal to break through 100k? Honestly, the current enthusiasm doesn't support that.

There are a few key levels to watch closely:

The 94k point is the dividing line; only if it can hold steady can we talk about continuing upward to 106k. The 90k level was actually broken through before; if it is lost again, there's a high probability of further decline to support at 87k or even 85k. The most concerning scenario is if even 85k can't be held—then the nature of this correction will change, and the trading approach will need to adapt accordingly.

Currently, the market's enthusiasm has clearly diminished, and the FOMO atmosphere has eased significantly, but the major institutions' long-term outlook remains unchanged. Short-term trading has become more straightforward: when near the lower support line and without a breakdown, consider small positions to go long; when a rebound approaches the upper line and can't break through, consider reducing positions. Once a breakdown is confirmed, follow the trend decisively and avoid getting caught in chasing highs or panic selling in the middle.

This is how a bull market progresses—the more it advances, the more frequent the sharp declines. The current test isn't about courage but patience. With proper position management, the rest depends on how the market chooses its direction.