BTC is trapped at $95,000, with rising leverage and ETF outflows hiding potential risks

BTC price rebounded from the support level of $89,200 to $90,500 and then fell into a stalemate, failing to break through the key level of $95,000, which has intensified two-way trading. Meanwhile, on one side, institutional fund outflows (ETF selling dominated over the past two days), and on the other side, leverage in derivatives markets is heating up. This contradictory situation reveals underlying market structural fragility.

Price Dilemma and Technical Resistance

According to the latest news, BTC is repeatedly testing around $90,500, while the support level at $89,200 aligns with the 50-day moving average, indicating clear technical support at this critical level. But more noteworthy is the resistance line at $95,000—market attempts to break through have repeatedly failed.

The Underlying Causes of Weak Rebound

Wintermute OTC trading head Jake Ostrovskis pointed out that the failure to break $95,000 has led to two-way trading, which is not just a technical issue. Over the past two trading days, ETF outflows have been the dominant force, indicating that institutional investors have been reducing their positions within this price range. This contrasts sharply with retail FOMO—large funds are fleeing while small investors chase higher prices.

The True Meaning of the Price Range

Currently, BTC is oscillating within the $89,000–$91,000 range, with relatively limited trading volume in this zone. From related information, the market experienced significant volatility during the most illiquid period (year-end), suggesting that current prices may not be stable.

Leverage Heating Up and Risk Accumulation

Data from derivatives markets warrants increased caution. According to the latest news, open interest in BTC futures and options has risen to nearly 700,000 BTC, hitting a three-week high, an increase of about 75,000 BTC since the beginning of the year. This indicates that market participants are using more leverage to bet on this rally.

Trader Sentiment Revealed by Funding Rates

Perpetual futures funding rates remain around 0.09% positive, indicating long positions are paying fees to shorts to maintain their exposure. In simple terms, longs are paying longs, which usually reflects market optimism for further upside. Traders may be leveraging to buy the dip, but this also increases the risk of long liquidations.

Historical Comparisons Highlight Risks

On-chain data from related sources shows that even whales have been forced to cut losses after losing $3.7 million on their BTC longs, indicating that even large players are under pressure at current prices. The continuous increase in open interest combined with ETF outflows creates a dangerous scenario—leveraged longs are building up, while big institutions are reducing their positions.

Institutional Actions and Market Structure

From related reports, Wintermute has been frequently injecting large sums into Binance during the New Year period, even operating during the most illiquid times, raising questions about potential market manipulation by institutions. Meanwhile, the options market has seen heated speculation on $100,000 call options.

What Are Institutions Doing?

• Wintermute is making large deposits into exchanges, possibly preparing for subsequent trades
• Large options trades are concentrated around $100,000, indicating institutions are betting on higher prices
• Whales are shifting from BTC to ETH, reflecting caution on BTC in the short term

What Retail Investors Should Be Wary Of

Based on analysis from related sources, when liquidity is thin and leverage is heating up, institutions may exploit this environment to create price volatility and liquidate retail positions. The current situation—low liquidity, rising leverage, and tight funds—creates an environment prone to extreme swings.

Summary

BTC is currently at a delicate equilibrium: price is stuck at resistance of $95,000, ETF outflows continue, but leverage is increasing. This contradictory combination suggests the market may face a re-pricing.

Key Points:

1. $95,000 is a critical resistance; a breakout is needed to confirm a genuine rebound
2. The opposing forces of rising leverage and ETF outflows increase market fragility
3. Institutions are actively positioning (via options, OTC trades) but are also selectively reducing their holdings
4. Retail investors should be cautious about chasing highs; risk management is more important than FOMO

Next focus: whether BTC can effectively break through $95,000 and whether leveraged longs will face large-scale liquidations during the breakout.