Spot gold opened quickly after the market opened today, surging to 4466.39 before encountering resistance, then oscillating lower, touching a low of 4407.80 during the session. Currently, it is fluctuating around 4449.40, forming a clear pattern of a sharp rise followed by a pullback.

From a market perspective, the game of expectations for a Fed rate cut continues. The resilience of economic data repeatedly weakens the urgency for rate cuts, which boosts the dollar and bond yields, directly pressuring gold. Meanwhile, the recovery of global risk sentiment also undermines investors' demand for gold as a safe haven, with these dual factors creating a distinctly bearish environment.

Technical signals reveal many clues. On the 5-minute chart, after being resisted in the 4460-4470 range, the price began to decline, with bears fully taking control. The Bollinger Bands have already opened downward, and the price is running along the lower band. Short-term moving averages are aligned in a bearish sequence, indicating that the current bearish trend has been established, and the rebound strength has always been insufficient.

Based on these judgments, a phased high-short strategy is more prudent. The first stage is to short in the 4455-4459 range, with a tight stop-loss at 4464 (only 3-5 points), targeting 4439 or even 4429. If gold rebounds to 4468-4472, this is the second entry point to short again, moving the stop-loss to 4475, watching the 4453-4458 range. If it rebounds further to 4498-4502, that is the third opportunity, with a stop-loss at 4505 and targets of 4478-4488. Breaking it down this way, individual risk is controllable, and cumulative gains could be more substantial.

Risk warning: This view is for market reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Trading involves risks; please fully assess your risk tolerance before entering the market.