Polymarket is pricing \~28% for Israel striking Iran before Jan 31. That number isn't crazy. IAEA reports, post-2025 escalation, and constant leaks mean the risk is real. But the timing matters more than the narrative. January is a short window. When deadlines are this tight,
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Polymarket is pricing \~28% for Israel striking Iran before Jan 31. That number isn't crazy. IAEA reports, post-2025 escalation, and constant leaks mean the risk is real. But the timing matters more than the narrative. January is a short window. When deadlines are this tight,