Senate limits Trump's military actions, how rising geopolitical risks are shaking up the crypto market

Senate War Powers Resolution Passed, Political Checks Reemerge

According to the latest news, the U.S. Senate passed a war powers resolution on January 9th with a vote of 52 to 47, limiting Trump’s ability to take military action against Venezuela. While the vote was close, it reflects ongoing congressional checks on executive power.

The core significance of this resolution is that Congress is attempting to constrain the president’s military decision-making through legislative means. According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to declare war belongs to Congress, but in recent years, executive authority has been expanding. This vote reaffirms traditional checks and balances, especially on geopolitical issues.

Political Uncertainty and Subtle Links to Cryptocurrency Markets

Risk Sentiment Transmission Mechanism

Geopolitical tensions often drive up demand for safe-haven assets. Although Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are often touted as “digital gold,” during short-term escalations of geopolitical conflicts, markets tend to experience concentrated sell-offs of risk assets. This is because institutional investors prioritize adjusting high-risk exposures, with cryptocurrencies often being among the first to be sold.

According to relevant information, the current crypto market panic index is at 42, indicating a “fear” sentiment stage. This suggests the market is digesting multiple uncertainties—both regulatory expectations and geopolitical factors.

Market Expectations for Trump Policies

Trump’s policies have a dual impact on the crypto market. On one hand, he has expressed support for cryptocurrency development; on the other hand, congressional checks on his military actions may signal more policy restrictions. In this political environment, policy expectations in the crypto market may need to be reassessed.

Recent Policy Milestones and Market Focus

Relevant news indicates that the U.S. Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a key vote on the CLARITY Act on January 16th. The advancement of this crypto regulation bill coincides with geopolitical risks, potentially increasing market uncertainty.

Investors should pay attention to two key dates:

• January 16th: Senate vote on the CLARITY Act
• Subsequent policy implementation details

Market Impact Assessment

Data shows that U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows recently reached $697 million in a single day, a three-month high. This indicates continued participation by institutional investors, but geopolitical risks may limit further upside potential.

Political uncertainty often causes short-term market volatility. While the Senate’s checks on military actions are a positive signal (reducing conflict escalation risk), this political tug-of-war itself increases the difficulty of market pricing.

Summary

The Senate’s resolution to restrict Trump’s military actions reflects checks within the U.S. political system but also exposes policy uncertainties. For the crypto market, this is neither outright bullish nor bearish but a risk factor that requires ongoing monitoring.

Currently, the crypto market is intertwined with multiple factors: pending regulation votes, rising geopolitical risks, and increasing institutional participation. Investors should recognize that short-term volatility may intensify, but in the long run, policy checks generally reduce the probability of extreme risks. The key is to distinguish short-term political noise from the true direction of long-term trends.