2026-01-08 17:25:18

The latest data from the Federal Reserve has attracted attention. The New York Fed's December monthly survey revealed two notable trends: consumer inflation expectations are rising—projected to reach 3.4% next year, up from 3.2% in November; at the same time, confidence in the employment outlook has fallen to a low.

Specifically, consumers believe there is only a 43.1% chance of finding a new job after unemployment, marking the lowest level since mid-2013. Two opposing forces are creating clear tension within the Federal Reserve: some officials are more concerned about inflation pressures, while others believe the risk of rising unemployment warrants greater caution.

This divergence is likely to become a variable at this month's Federal Reserve policy meeting. When the debate centers on whether to raise interest rates or hold steady, the market often faces increased uncertainty. The continued rise in inflation expectations coupled with pessimism about employment may delay the Fed's next move.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

24 Likes

Reward
24
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

CryptoCross-TalkClub

· 01-11 15:53

Laughing out loud, the Federal Reserve is now starting to play both sides. I would call this operation a policy version of the "harvesting machine" for retail investors. The unemployment rate is 43%, and the probability of finding a job is something our crypto community finds familiar. The probability of project teams running away is even higher. Inflation is soaring while employment is dropping. This contradictory combination is absolutely brilliant, more bizarre than my K-line charts. Market uncertainty is at its peak. Everyone, get ready. The next black swan could hit your head at any moment. There are internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve. We ordinary people are just riding a roller coaster. Life really can't do without some jokes to lighten the mood.

View OriginalReply0

AllInAlice

· 01-08 17:55

Unemployment rate hits a 12-year low, inflation is still soaring. Is the Federal Reserve playing with fire? --- 43.1% re-employment probability? The nice way to say it is the bottom of the valley; the harsh way is there's no hope. --- It's ridiculous. Inflation is at 3.4% on one side, and employment is cooling off on the other. No matter which policy is chosen, it offends someone. --- Internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve cause the market to tremble. This rhythm is truly incredible. --- Trying to control inflation while maintaining employment—can they have both? The Federal Reserve. --- The worst employment confidence since 2013. Are you all still watching the fun? Your wallets are about to shrink, everyone. --- A typical dilemma of choosing between the lesser of two evils. Most likely, they won't do anything in the end. Waiting for next month's meeting to fool me?

View OriginalReply0

GasGuru

· 01-08 17:53

It's the same old trick again, with inflation rising and employment declining—the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma... A 43.1% chance of finding a job? How bad does this data have to be?

View OriginalReply0

GasSavingMaster

· 01-08 17:37

This 43.1% data is quite shocking, really. Unemployed and still can't find a job, that's just outrageous. --- Inflation is soaring, employment is dropping. The Federal Reserve is now in a difficult position, haha. --- Next year's inflation rate of 3.4%? What about my salary increase? --- There’s internal conflict within the Federal Reserve. We retail investors can only watch and see who will win. --- The lowest employment confidence since 2013. This data is frightening just to say out loud. --- A typical sign of stagflation, with inflation and unemployment happening simultaneously. It’s really tough. --- Waiting for the rate hike decision day, the market will definitely experience some volatility. This uncertainty is truly extreme. --- 43.1%... I’m even thinking about changing careers. --- Inflation pressure vs. employment risk. The Federal Reserve is really caught between a rock and a hard place. --- This kind of contradictory situation is the most torturous. Fear of unemployment from rate hikes, but inflation won’t slow down if they don’t raise rates.

View OriginalReply0

DaoResearcher

· 01-08 17:34

From the data performance, the 43.1% employment probability hitting a new low is already an extremely dangerous signal. It is worth noting that this kind of governance tension (inflation vs. employment) is actually an example of incentive incompatibility in real-world scenarios.

View OriginalReply0

MEVictim

· 01-08 17:28

Prices are rising, it's hard to find a job, and the Federal Reserve is fighting among itself, making it unclear what to do... Retail investors are stuck in the middle like this, it's really unbelievable.

View OriginalReply0