#我的2026第一条帖 JPMorgan Chase's latest report indicates that the previous "de-risking" process in the crypto market is likely nearing its end. The capital flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are showing signs of stabilization, providing a positive signal for market sentiment.

Led by JPMorgan Chase Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the analysis team states that although there was a capital outflow from BTC and ETH ETFs in December 2025 (while global stock ETFs recorded a historic monthly net inflow of $235 billion), market indicators have improved after January 2026: capital flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are showing "bottoming signs," and data from perpetual contracts and CME Bitcoin futures also indicate that selling pressure is easing. This suggests that the phase of retail and institutional investors reducing their positions simultaneously in Q4 2025 may have ended.
Additionally, the report mentions that MSCI has decided not to exclude Bitcoin and crypto asset reserve companies from the global stock index in its February 2026 review, providing a "temporary relief" for the market and benefiting related companies such as Strategy. Notably, JPMorgan Chase denies that recent crypto corrections are caused by liquidity deterioration, believing that the core trigger was the systemic de-risking triggered by MSCI's statement on October 10 last year regarding MicroStrategy's index status. Current signs indicate that this process has essentially been completed.

Analysis: Bitcoin's key support level is around $89,200, with leveraged longs still in a retracement phase, buying on dips

Bitcoin briefly dipped to about $89,300, testing support near the 50-day moving average (around $89,200), before rebounding to approximately $90,500. This is the third consecutive day of correction for Bitcoin, after approaching nearly $95,000 on Monday.
Crypto trading firm Win points out that the recent decline was mainly driven by low trading volume and profit-taking by some traders.
Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Win, states that after the market briefly regained risk appetite at the start of the year but failed to break through the key resistance of $95,000, the past two days have seen two-way volatility, with ETF capital outflows being one of the dominant factors.
Furthermore, the Fed's rate cut expectations have recently cooled. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut at the January 28 meeting has dropped from 15.5% a week ago and 23.5% a month ago to the current 11.6%. From the derivatives market perspective, leverage levels are rising, and the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains around 0.09% positive, indicating that longs are still paying a premium to maintain their positions. Traders continue to use leverage to buy on dips during the correction; however, this concentrated long position structure also means that if prices cannot advance further, even mild declines could trigger forced liquidations, adding selling pressure.