#比特币将向何方#

No need for unnecessary talk, let’s get straight to the point. Let’s briefly discuss Bitcoin from both a faith-based perspective and a trading perspective, boldly predicting its future. This is my pledge, and you’re welcome to come back in ten years to prove me wrong.

From a faith perspective, if Bitcoin cannot reach an outrageously high price in the long term, the outcome will be zero, with no middle ground. During the intense volatility of rapid rises and falls, it will eventually give birth to a super-market-cap monster in the human world; otherwise, it will fade away like countless bubbles in human history. If we treat Bitcoin as a phenomenal publicly traded company with 21 million shares, its current market cap still has long-term imagination space. Perhaps one day, we will find that the current price of around 90,000 is still relatively cheap. Whether Satoshi Nakamoto is an individual or a team no longer matters. What matters is that a digital asset that continuously radiates to all of humanity and has formed broad consensus, if not eliminated by revolutionary technological forces from the bottom up, is already one of humanity’s greatest inventions. The total market value of this asset will not stop here. With unlimited fiat currency supply and Bitcoin’s fixed quantity, there is an inevitable development outcome. Long-term, Bitcoin’s price does not fundamentally enter a bear market. From a faith perspective, I believe that in the foreseeable future, this asset is unlikely to end in zero. It will only restart its bullish march after each intense fluctuation!

From a trading perspective, Bitcoin this year, under the backdrop of considerable gains, is already in a cyclical bear market. The weekly chart shows a complete three-wave upward push, with a correction stabilizing around 80,000. Currently, there are signs of a breakout upward, but it’s unlikely to hit a new all-time high directly. A sideways oscillation pattern has already formed on the monthly chart, and even falling back below 80,000 is very easy. Using leverage to bet on the future based on faith is clearly not a good strategy here.

Therefore, from a trading perspective, if you hold with faith, only holding spot without leverage can help you survive the cycle. In terms of contracts, its only advantage over altcoins is sufficient liquidity. Besides that, there’s nothing particularly enticing about Bitcoin at the moment. If you’re purely speculating, you might choose other more attractive assets to target short-term volatility. Before Bitcoin decisively breaks below 80,000 or truly surpasses 100,000, it’s not an ideal entry point for long positions. Either wait for a lower left-side or a strong right-side. For now, it’s better to stay on the sidelines.