Monad (MON) initial rally: from chain launch to 2025 market

Analysis of Rapid Growth in the First Week of Launch

The public debut of the new L1 network MON proved to be an activity-packed event. In the early stages of the mainnet launch, approximately 10–11% of the token supply immediately entered the market, providing traders with trading opportunities. Despite immediate selling pressure, market makers and buyers maintained the price stability. On the first day of trading, MON’s price was about 50–70% higher than the publicly announced sale price—remarkable given the overall crypto market was in a weak state.

Currently, MON is valued at $0.03, with a 24-hour decrease of -4.56%. The 24-hour trading volume is $5.32M, while the fully diluted valuation (FDV) reached $2.59B.

The Role of Initial Token Distribution

MON’s distribution framework deeply influenced early holder behavior:

• Millions of addresses received tokens via airdrops, with approximately 3.33 billion units claimed.
• Over 85,000 participants invested hundreds of millions of dollars during the public sale rounds.
• The team, early investors, and national treasury held over 50% under long-term vesting schedules spanning several years.

This diverse holder base helps control sell pressure. Airdrop recipients became early sellers, while public buyers and lock-in holders reduced market stress.

On-Chain Activity and Ecosystem Power

In the first 24–48 hours post-launch, network activity was extraordinary:

• Nearly 3.7 million transactions recorded.
• 153,000 active addresses and over 18,000 smart contract deployments.
• Total value locked (TVL) reached (millions, and decentralized exchange (DEX) trading exceeded )million.

These figures indicate that MON’s rally was not just a token event—it marked the beginning of a full ecosystem where decentralized applications and users were ready.

Multi-Platform Listing and Liquidity Advantages

MON was immediately listed on major centralized and decentralized exchanges:

• Deep order books and professional market makers absorbed large sales.
• Derivatives and hedging tools offered traders risk management options.
• Coordinated liquidity across platforms kept price volatility in check.

This was different from new launches where thin liquidity and limited exchange listings often lead to extreme price swings.

MON’s Position in the 2025 Market Outlook

Understanding MON’s early success requires grasping the current crypto environment:

• Volatility in Bitcoin and major digital assets persisted into 2025.
• High global interest rates and equity market uncertainty directed speculative capital toward alternative tokens.
• Institutional entry remained limited, but new L1 chains and airdrop promotions drew investor attention to distribution models.

In this environment, tokens like MON, with thoughtful distribution, rapid ecosystem activity, and broad exchange coverage, succeeded in attracting short-term capital.

Timeline-Based Outlook

$90 Short-term( days to weeks)

If liquidity remains high and on-chain activity persists, MON’s rally could continue for several weeks. incentive programs, new dApps, and active trading can support this momentum.

$70 Mid-term### several months(

Significant risks emerge here. As vesting tranches unlock, circulating supply will increase, potentially causing selling pressure. Without stability in TVL and usage, negative impacts on price are possible.

)Long-term### years(

Long-term success depends on whether the network can continue building real-world applications and developer ecosystem. Without ongoing product innovation and user adoption, long-term valuation remains uncertain.

Risks and Cautions

High Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $2.59B indicates high market expectations. If development milestones are not met, price compression is likely.

Supply Unlock Risks: Upcoming vesting tranches could release large amounts of tokens, increasing selling pressure.

Broader Market Factors: Bitcoin momentum, regulatory announcements, and global liquidity conditions can impact MON.

Developer Competition: If developers shift to other L1 chains, long-term utility could be affected.

Practical Strategic Guidance

Position Management: Use hedging options instead of full risk exposure. If available, control risk with derivatives.

On-Chain Monitoring: Regularly check active addresses, TVL, and DEX volume—these are fundamental indicators of real momentum.

Unlock Schedule Tracking: Note upcoming vesting dates and prepare profit-taking strategies at potential sell points.

Portfolio Diversification: Keep a portion for short-term gains and another based on long-term ecosystem development.

Conclusion

MON’s initial rally was a combination of well-planned distribution, extensive exchange coverage, and strong on-chain activity. These factors provide short-term strength in the 2025 environment. However, the $2.59B FDV and upcoming supply unlocks pose medium-term risks.

If the development team and ecosystem continue to foster real usage and developer activity, MON could pave the way for long-term value appreciation. Otherwise, supply pressure and broader market factors will exert downward pressure on prices.

Traders and investors should monitor on-chain metrics, track unlock schedules, and maintain active risk management. This approach can capitalize on short-term opportunities while safeguarding against long-term risks.