#比特币价格预测 Seeing this set of data from Polymarket, my mind instantly flashes back to those familiar moments over the past decade. The 9% chance of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is itself quite interesting — it reflects not technical or fundamental factors, but the collective psychological expectations of market participants.

During the 2017 wave, I also witnessed similar extreme bullish sentiment. At that time, everyone thought "it couldn't possibly fall," yet it dropped from $13,000 to $3,600 in less than a year. In 2021, it was even more exaggerated; within a month after reaching a new high in November, it fell 50%. The lessons of history are clear: when the market prices a certain possibility so low, it often means that the risk has been seriously underestimated.

The current situation is different in that this upward cycle does have genuine institutional participation, which changes the nature of the volatility. But what remains unchanged is that extreme bullish expectations always leave room for a correction. A 9% chance of falling below $80,000 more indicates how strong the current consensus is, rather than how invincible the bulls are.

I'm not here to short, but after years of being bullish, I increasingly believe — the best investment decisions are never about chasing the highest probability, but about finding overlooked risk gaps in the market.