Recent developments in the crypto market over the past week are worth noting. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission( SEC) removed the phrase "cryptocurrency assets" from its 2026 priority list, which is seen by industry insiders as a positive policy signal. Meanwhile, the chairman of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee is also considering delaying a vote on key cryptocurrency legislation, suggesting that policymakers' attitudes toward the industry may be gradually shifting.

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng reposted this policy update, commenting that "a super cycle may be imminent," but he also admitted that his judgment could be wrong—this cautious attitude actually makes his view more credible. From a market cycle perspective, some analysts believe that the November 2025 "crash-like sell-off" marked a reset of the market cycle, and the first to second quarter of the future may mainly see consolidation.

Institutional fund movements are also noteworthy. The recent capital inflow into the US spot Bitcoin ETF has indeed slowed, but on-chain data presents a different picture. Gaming company SharpLink Gaming, as the second-largest Ethereum holder, has been steadily increasing its ETH staking over the past seven months, with the total now surpassing 860,000 ETH, indicating that long-term holders are not bearish.

The Ethereum long-short battle is heating up. On the positive side, large ETH staking and re-staking continue to grow; the derivatives market has accumulated a large number of short positions around $3,400, which could trigger a "short squeeze" and push the price higher if the price reaches this level. However, risks also exist—network transaction fees are at historic lows, possibly indicating weak on-chain demand.

The altcoin market shows a divergence. Funds are rotating into high-volatility assets, but the privacy coin sector is under significant pressure due to negative team events, with tokens like Zcash experiencing sharp declines.

Key variables in the current market include three points: First, the potential ruling on tariff legality by the U.S. Supreme Court on January 14, which will directly impact short-term risk appetite; second, whether Bitcoin can hold above $90,000 and push further toward $95,000, and whether Ethereum can consolidate above $3,000 and test the $3,400 resistance; third, close monitoring of changes in exchange Bitcoin holdings and institutional fund flows is necessary to determine whether the market is facing selling pressure or quietly accumulating.