#比特币价格波动 Seeing the judgment made by Banmu Xia, my first reaction was—this is somewhat similar to the rhythm at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2021. Back then, the market was also searching for direction amid extreme volatility, and analysts were debating whether to continue rising or to adjust.

Looking back at history, Bitcoin's pattern of stepping out of an "extremely narrowed oscillation range" often signals that a major trend shift is about to take shape. The key isn’t what will happen in the next 1-2 months—this window is actually the market’s final buildup. The real test will come around March or April next year.

I tend to agree with the judgment that ETF outflows are significant. The inflow of spot ETFs in 2024 has changed the market’s liquidity landscape. Once this logic reverses, the breakout momentum could be even more intense than we imagine. $80,500 isn’t a mystical support level, but the $71,000 line—if it really drops to that point, it would return to this fall’s levels, indicating that this rally could be completely wiped out. Although the probability is small, if it happens, it would be a fatal blow to market sentiment.

The smartest approach now isn’t to be bearish or overly bullish, but to wait until the direction becomes clear. Extreme volatility itself is a signal; as long as you have patience, the answer will soon be revealed.