2026-01-11 03:30:31

Recently, some institutions have released a long-term prediction for BTC, suggesting it could reach a price of $53.4 million by 2050. At first glance, it may seem a bit outlandish, but when we analyze the data, the logic isn't that far-fetched.

From a different perspective, to reach that target from the current price, Bitcoin would only need an annual growth rate of about 28.8%. This growth rate sounds aggressive, but it is not unprecedented in history. Take tech giants as an example; Tesla's long-term annualized return since going public is about 40%, which can serve as a reference.

Of course, Bitcoin and Tesla are two different things—completely different in terms of era background, market size, and risk attributes. But this precisely reveals an essential truth about investing: true wealth creation comes from the power of compound interest over time, not from short-term surges.

So the key question isn't how much percentage it can increase in a certain year, but whether—Bitcoin can maintain its status as a widely accepted mainstream asset over the next few decades. This is the core factor driving long-term valuation.

BTC1,84%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

15 Likes

Reward
15
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

just_another_wallet

· 14h ago

28.8% annualized sounds quite reasonable, anyway, just hold it long-term.

View OriginalReply0

rug_connoisseur

· 01-11 19:07

Wait, a 28.8% annual growth rate? Sounds pretty good, not that crazy. Honestly, I'm more concerned about whether BTC can hold its position as a global asset. Just calculating compound interest doesn't mean much. 2050 is too far away; I just want to know what can happen next year.

View OriginalReply0

FlashLoanLord

· 01-11 03:57

28.8% annualized? Sounds not unreasonable, just worried about sticking with it for that long. Compound interest sounds great, but how many people can really hold on for decades? The key is whether cryptocurrencies can truly become mainstream assets; otherwise, it's just self-entertainment. 53.4 million? Still somewhat tempting, but the premise is to survive until 2050. This logic can indeed be made to sound convincing, but will the market really follow the script? Who knows.

View OriginalReply0

RamenStacker

· 01-11 03:55

53.4 million? Let's wait until 2050 to see if we can live that long haha I've heard the compound interest explanation so many times, but the question is, can BTC really last that long? 28.8% annualized? Sounds easy, but sticking with it is hell. Not quite comparable to Tesla, one is technological innovation, and the other is... digital gold? The premise of mainstream assets is too crucial; without it, everything is pointless. Anyway, I'm going to keep stacking, it's just idle money. If it reaches 53.4 million, that’s great; if not, no loss.

View OriginalReply0

QuorumVoter

· 01-11 03:50

28.8% annualized? Sounds not so crazy, but the real test is whether you can stick with it for decades. --- I agree with the concept of compound interest, but only if BTC can survive that long and remain recognized. --- Comparing it to Tesla is a bit of a stretch, after all, one is a physical company and the other is a consensus product. --- The core issue is whether it can become a mainstream asset; I remain cautious about this. --- That's right, in the long run, it's about status; short-term fluctuations are just noise. --- Growing from 0 to 53.4 million in 28 years? I'll just watch quietly. Those who don't believe in the premise can do as they please. --- What era will it be in 2050? Who knows if people will still be playing with cryptocurrencies. --- I buy this logic, but can the market really operate so rationally? --- The power of compound interest is real, but the question is whether it can truly withstand the cycles.

View OriginalReply0

Rugman_Walking

· 01-11 03:48

28.8% annualized return doesn't sound that exaggerated, and the key really depends on whether BTC can maintain its position as a mainstream asset.

View OriginalReply0

retroactive_airdrop

· 01-11 03:37

Talking about 2050 now, it feels all talk Compound interest sounds great, but the premise is that you'll live until then Tesla can rise 40%, can the crypto market? Completely two different game rules Honestly, it's still a gamble on whether it will last long enough; everything else is empty talk Who knows if it will be replaced by something new by then

View OriginalReply0

not_your_keys

· 01-11 03:32

53.4 million is too optimistic, who dares to guarantee that BTC will still be alive in twenty years? Maintaining this growth rate for 28 years is hard to imagine. Comparing it to Tesla is a bit off. The key is adoption, that's the real issue. I just want to know who is actually footing the bill.

View OriginalReply0