The long-term fundamental cost basis of Ethereum remains stable: a structural bottom near $2800

Ethereum is attempting to regain the $3100 level as price movement becomes more consolidative and the market prepares to make a clear decision. Analysts differ in their recommendations for Ethereum after weeks of turbulent trading between failed upward attempts and resistance at higher levels. A minority of analysts believe Ethereum will resume its upward trend and challenge its all-time highs, while the majority foresee a bleak 2026 with declining demand and reduced liquidity.
CryptoQuant reports show that short-term noise is surpassed from a longer-term perspective. The study uses the realized price of Ethereum based on addresses’ aggregation, which measures the average cost basis of addresses holding Ethereum rather than trading it. This indicator demonstrates long-term capital commitment, unlike momentum indicators.
Notably, this cumulative cost basis increased after 2020. Despite the decline in Ethereum’s price between 2022 and 2023, long-term holders remained steady. This behavior has helped establish a strong market base.
This realized price has stabilized around the $2700-$2800 level, forming a structural cost region for Ethereum. The market must decide whether this long-term support will hold the price or if changing macro factors will disrupt a system that has lasted for decades, while Ethereum hovers slightly above this zone.
Ethereum’s long-term aggregation system faces a critical test
The study indicates that the nature of the discussion around Ethereum is changing. It’s not whether the $2700-$2800 aggregation range will persist in the medium term, but whether this aggregation model can continue. According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum stands out from the altcoin market in this context.
Most cryptocurrencies have experienced significant declines since 2022 without a solid foundation for their cost basis. Due to inconsistent long-term buying, recoveries in cryptocurrencies have been weaker and more unstable. However, Ethereum has maintained long-term holder confidence through multiple periods of tension, including 2018, 2020, 2022, and the tense year of 2025.
Markets have changed, and structural systems are ending. During periods of apparent calm, fundamental assumptions are more susceptible to change. Two prominent future scenarios emerge.
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