2026-01-11 20:40:27

Trading expected value isn't the same as gambling. The difference lies in the structure: repeating events with clear resolution rules and mispriced probability ranges create legitimate trading opportunities. The real skill isn't about predicting specific outcomes—that's just guessing. Instead, it's about identifying when the market misprices probability distributions. When you trade the odds rather than the outcomes, you're building a genuine edge. That's what separates strategy from chance.

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OnChainSleuth

· 18h ago

That's correct, but most people can't tell the difference between the two at all; they're still betting on the next K-line movement... The real edge is betting when the probabilities are unbalanced, not relying on luck to guess the direction.

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rug_connoisseur

· 01-11 21:10

Well said, finally someone explained it clearly. Most people are still gambling on a certain coin, and haven't understood the essence of trading at all.

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WalletAnxietyPatient

· 01-11 21:07

Well said, that's the logic—most people simply don't understand the difference between probability and outcome.

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AlwaysAnon

· 01-11 21:05

Basically, it's about finding the mispricing in the market rather than blindly guessing the specific rise or fall. I agree with this point.

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bridge_anxiety

· 01-11 21:01

Well said, that's how trading works. Many people confuse probability with outcomes and are still gambling on individual events. The real profit logic is to repeatedly capture mispricings, not to guess blindly.

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JustAnotherWallet

· 01-11 20:43

Basically, it's a probability game, and the profit comes from the market's naive money.

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