#比特币期权交割 Another epic delivery day worth $23.7 billion has arrived. Looking at this number, the images that come to mind are those scenes from each major delivery before and after these years—repressive sideways trading, sudden volume surges, and the moment when the options cage disappears, releasing a sense of freedom.

Since the $11 billion annual delivery at the end of 2023, I have been pondering a pattern: deliveries are never the end, but often the starting point of a new trend. The pain point at $42,000 was so intense that it squeezed the market, but once it expired, BTC was like an arrow released from a bow, rushing straight to $48,000.

Subsequent deliveries have grown larger, from $15 billion to $17 billion to $19.8 billion, each reinforcing this pattern—after gamma hedging is released, volatility significantly amplifies, and the single-sided trend often accelerates accordingly. Especially those annual large deliveries, with increasing nominal values, exert more and more pressure on the market. Once released, the rebound strength becomes even more formidable.

Today’s largest pain point at $96,000 delivery, in my view, is not just a technical event. Have you noticed? The entire series of deliveries this year shows the maximum pain point moving upward—from $85,000 to $90,000 and then to $96,000. This reflects the market’s ongoing valuation recovery of Bitcoin. Liquidity during holidays indeed amplifies short-term volatility, but it also often nurtures new opportunities.

History tells me that once such "cages" disappear, true volatility begins. Some analysts are optimistic about approaching $100,000, and my intuition is that this expectation isn’t too far-fetched. The key is to watch the first few trading days after the delivery—those are the moments when true intentions are revealed.