"Halving will lead to a surge?" I'm tired of hearing this question. Honestly, those still hoping for a turnaround in 2026 are probably going to be worn down by repeated volatility. As a player who has been rooted in this market for 8 years, I need to be clear: instead of dreaming that 2026 will mark the start of a bull market, it's better to adjust your mindset now—this year is destined to be the year of "paying the price" for the crazy行情 of the past two years. If you want to make quick money, wake up.

Let's first look at what history says. Reviewing the past three halvings, a painful pattern repeats: the gains from each cycle are shrinking. The 2012 halving drove asset prices up by 93 times—impressive, right? By 2016, it was only 30 times, and in 2020, even worse, just 7.8 times. Why is this? Because as the market size expands, the amount of capital needed to drive a rally increases exponentially, making it more difficult. More importantly, the incremental expectations for the 2024 to 2025 halving have basically been digested, and the window for institutional capital deployment has closed. Currently, the market is filled with chips trapped at high levels and profit-taking orders rushing to lock in gains, pulling against each other—like a few people around a table each calculating their own move, trying to artificially trigger a big rally? That's too naive.

I see 2026 as a "super volatile year" for sure. A 5% rise will be met with sell-offs and panic exits, an 8% drop will see people rushing to buy the dip, and the trend will be shattered into pieces. What's the most torturous part of this行情? It consumes more patience than a bear market—during a bear market, you know to lie low and accept reality; during a bull market, you know to hold tight. But in this digestion period, you have to swing endlessly between hope and disappointment—that's the real test.