At 3:00 AM on January 9th, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to be announced, and market expectations have shifted 180 degrees. After the December non-farm payroll data was released, the CME FedWatch Tool showed an unexpected result — the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January dropped to 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current 3.5%-3.75% rate range soared to 95%. The expectation for a rate cut in March is only around 30%. This "wait-and-see" stance has sparked lively discussions in the crypto community: is it a bearish signal or is there another secret behind it?

On the surface, the Federal Reserve's insistence on high interest rates seems aimed at consolidating the US dollar’s international position. Historically, each rate hike cycle has put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin as the dollar appreciates. But now, the situation is different. When interest rates stabilize at high levels and economic uncertainty continues to rise, idle funds start to seek high-yield opportunities aggressively. Cryptocurrencies, with their decentralized nature, are becoming a new safe haven to hedge against traditional financial volatility.

Looking at the actions of institutions makes this clearer. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recently recorded its largest single-day inflow in nearly three months. The US spot Bitcoin ETF even saw daily inflows surpassing $470 million. This is not retail investors playing around; it’s genuine institutional capital pouring in. The co-founder of BitMEX has a more direct judgment — liquidity in the crypto market has bottomed out, a new upward cycle is beginning, and funds will gradually follow the path of "Bitcoin → Mainstream Coins → Potential Projects."

Interestingly, the correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar is strengthening. In a market dominated by macro factors, Bitcoin’s safe-haven attributes are becoming more like gold. The Federal Reserve’s continued high interest rate policy actually reinforces the demand for alternative assets.