2026-01-12 00:29:30

Observe BTC's recent trend. If the situation aligns with expectations from late March to early April, the price may touch the bottom of the current cycle. The subsequent rebound cycle is similar to the patterns seen in 2019 and 2022, and it is expected that the market will operate within the 70,000-80,000 yuan range until summer.

However, the real test may come in Q4. If a black swan event occurs again in the fourth quarter, causing the market to plummet from 80,000 directly to 45,000, then after this sharp decline, the beginning of a major bull market will follow — rising from 45,000 to 144,000.

Interestingly, those optimistic predictions have already been proven wrong by reality and have become a joke. But if another black swan event really happens in Q4, even the most cautious investors may find it difficult to completely avoid risks. This is the cruel nature of the crypto market — full of uncertainties.

BTC3,22%

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StableBoi

· 01-12 00:56

At the moment of 45,000, I went all-in, waiting for the story of 144,000.

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BugBountyHunter

· 01-12 00:53

Ha, it's the Q4 black swan argument again, saying the same thing every year... Wait, 45,000 to 144,000? That's almost a threefold increase, dream on. Those previous predictions were proven wrong, and this time isn't it also a gamble?

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GasGuzzler

· 01-12 00:52

The term "Black Swan" has been overused; when it truly arrives, no one can avoid it. --- If that 45,000 wave really comes, I'll go all in, regardless of risk management. --- Holding 70,000-80,000 until summer? Just forget it, anyone who believes that is bound to lose. --- Optimists are getting their faces slapped, and now they’re dreaming of 144,000 again. Honestly, I’ve heard this narrative three times already. --- Instead of trying to predict, it’s better to live well; don’t die before the Swan arrives. --- Those who talk about risk avoidance simply don’t get the crypto game; risk itself is part of the game.

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ForkItAllDay

· 01-12 00:50

Ha, it's that time of year again for the "My Predictions" segment. Will I get it right this time? Last time, you said July to August, and what happened... better not to mention it. If the Q4 black swan really comes and it hits 45,000, I'll go all in—it's all a gamble anyway. Those predictions that got proven wrong are now changing their tune to Q4. If this one also crashes, I won't be able to hold it together. This is the crypto market—basically, it's about luck. No one should pretend to be clear-headed. Wait, where did you come up with the number 144,000...

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MiningDisasterSurvivor

· 01-12 00:39

I've been through it all, a 2018 collapse, a 2022 crash... This forecast sounds good, but how many people can withstand the drop to 45000? The biggest fear in a bear market isn't the decline, but the mindset.

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