2026-01-12 00:30:34

#2026年比特币价格展望 Spot Gold Price Movement Breakdown: Short-term vs. Mid-term Strategies

**First Impression Conclusion**

The M15 and H1 timeframes are already showing signs of overheating—obvious overbought signals, and divergence between volume and price indicates the rally might be somewhat fake. However, on a larger scale, the bullish structure on H4 and D1 remains quite solid. Geopolitical safe-haven demand combined with rate cut expectations are supporting the upward trend. The main goal of this rally is to control the market and induce short covering.

**Key Numbers to Remember**

Resistance levels above are at these two points:
- The 4550 level is the previous high; if broken without sufficient volume, it could quickly fall back.
- 4560 is an integer psychological barrier, adding pressure.

Support levels below should not be ignored:
- 4520 is the middle band of the short-term Bollinger Bands.
- 4500 is even more critical—it's the dividing line for medium to long-term trends.

**What to Watch Next**

Before CPI data release, the price is likely to oscillate within the 4530-4550 range repeatedly. If it breaks above 4550 with increased volume, it could attempt to test 4560. However, if CPI data exceeds expectations, don’t rush—expect a pullback to 4520 or even 4500 to find support again. Nonetheless, the medium- to long-term upward trend remains intact, and the outlook remains bullish.

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OnChainArchaeologist

· 01-12 00:58

Short-term overheating but the medium-term structure is still okay. To put it simply, this rhythm is mainly the big players controlling the market, and we'll only know the direction once the data is released.

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MEVHunterNoLoss

· 01-12 00:57

The recent divergence between price and volume is a bit concerning. Short-term overheating is indeed risky.

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ContractExplorer

· 01-12 00:52

Short-term overheating, then let it overheat. Anyway, I focus on the medium to long term. If it can't break 4500, I'll just sit back and win.

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GrayscaleArbitrageur

· 01-12 00:52

The divergence between price and volume this time is indeed a bit weak, and short-term trading is prone to being shaken out. Let's wait for the CPI to give us a direction; 4500 is the real bottom line.

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GasFeeCryBaby

· 01-12 00:50

It's another short-term overheating, long-term bullish. How long can we keep using this set of phrases...

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TokenTaxonomist

· 01-12 00:45

actually, the volume divergence on lower timeframes screams evolutionary dead-end for this particular pump cycle — statistically speaking, we're looking at textbook distribution patterns here. but let me pull up my spreadsheet... yeah, the h4 structure still holds, so it's not entirely taxonomically incorrect yet.

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