Goldman Sachs Forecast: US Economy to Grow with Mild and Controllable Inflation, Federal Reserve May Cut Rates Twice

Goldman Sachs economists stated that tax cuts, rising real wages, and increased household wealth will drive US economic growth this year, while inflation levels are expected to ease.
In the "2026 US Economic Outlook Report" released on January 11 local time, Goldman Sachs mentioned that due to increased uncertainty in the labor market outlook, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts in June and September, each by 25 basis points.
Goldman Sachs's specific economic forecasts are as follows: US GDP growth in 2026: 2.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, and 2.8% year-over-year for the full year. Inflation indicators: As of December, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will decrease to 2.1% year-over-year, and the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will slow to 2% year-over-year. Unemployment rate: The baseline forecast is stable at 4.5%, but there is a risk of "no employment growth"—businesses may reduce labor costs through artificial intelligence technology.