#比特币价格走势 The $23.7 billion annual delivery, I've seen this scene too many times. I still remember the $11 billion delivery at the end of 2023, when the market was tightly suppressed, with prices oscillating narrowly between $42,000 and $43,000. The entire market felt like it was trapped in a cage. Once the delivery was over, the "cage" disappeared, and Bitcoin quickly broke through in the following days, initiating a one-sided rally towards $48,000.

The same logic applies this time. The liquidity during the Christmas holiday is inherently thin, and the market has been oscillating around $85,000 to $90,000, with gamma hedging strongly suppressing volatility. But this suppression is always temporary; the energy released after settlement often pushes the market into a one-sided trend.

Looking at the delivery patterns over the past few years makes it clear—after the $15 billion delivery in March 2024, Bitcoin quickly broke upward, eventually reaching a new high above $70,000; after the $18 billion delivery in September, a rebound was triggered by the rate cut expectations. When energy accumulates to a certain point, it must be released.

The key now is, in which direction will this released energy go? Based on the maximum pain point set at $96,000, it seems the main players are more interested in the upside. After settlement, volatility increases, and the probability of breaking above $90,000 is quite high, even with a chance to test $100,000. But don’t forget, holiday market participation is limited, and the real test will come after the New Year trading resumes.

History shows that the more suppressed a market seems, the more violently it tends to move once released. This time is no exception.