Entering the second week of January 2026, the fundamental shift in the game rules of global asset prices is underway. From the previous short-term shocks caused by geopolitical events, the market is now beginning to focus on institutional uncertainties — in other words, all kinds of capital are rebalancing their positions based on upcoming legal rulings and macroeconomic data.

The most critical milestone is on January 14. The U.S. Supreme Court will make a final ruling on the legality of the Trump administration’s new tariffs policy. This ruling involves the legal basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). It sounds complex, but the core issues are actually two:

First, can the government institutionalize the use of "emergency powers" as a long-term tool to impose tariffs? This directly concerns whether administrative authority is overstepping.

Second, if the court finds the procedures unconstitutional, will the tariffs already paid need to be refunded? The amount involved is not small — by the end of 2025, these new tariffs have already collected over $200 billion.

You can imagine that if the court rules that these funds are unconstitutional and must be refunded, it would be like injecting a strong boost into global liquidity. Expectations of dollar repatriation, the predictability of U.S. fiscal policy, and the pricing logic of international trade will all be reshuffled. For the crypto market, this means a systemic reallocation of global capital flows, shifting from geopolitical games to institutional certainty-based trading.