#比特币衍生品与交割 The nominal value of $23.7 billion, along with 300,000 BTC option contracts, makes today's 4 PM settlement scale truly epic. Historical data shows that after such large options expire, the market often experiences a one-sided trend acceleration, with volatility significantly amplifying, which is almost certain.

The key is to observe on-chain fund flows before and after the settlement—whale wallet movements, exchange inflows and outflows. These signals often provide more insight than technical analysis. If large transfers into exchanges accelerate, it may indicate concentrated selling pressure; conversely, it could suggest institutions are accumulating at low levels.

Additionally, keep an eye on the distribution of options open interest, especially the ratio changes between call and put options, as these reflect the true expectations of market participants. The scale of $23.7 billion is enough to move prices, but the specific direction depends on the data. It is recommended to focus on on-chain trading activity and large transfer records within two hours before and after the settlement.