On the early morning of January 9th, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, and the market had already known the answer—no rate cut.

After the December non-farm payroll data was released, the CME Fed Funds Futures tool directly showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January had fallen to 5%, with a 95% chance of maintaining the 3.5%-3.75% rate range. Even looking ahead to March, the expectation of a rate cut is only 30%. Once these figures came out, many people started to worry: high interest rates are the nemesis of risk assets—will Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies be hammered down this time?

On the surface, the logic seems easy to see in reverse. In a high-interest-rate environment, the dollar tends to strengthen, and risk assets are usually under pressure—this is a common script during rate hike cycles. But the underlying market logic has quietly shifted. With economic growth prospects full of uncertainties and no signs of easing high interest rates, idle capital must find an outlet. Thanks to decentralization and non-correlation, cryptocurrencies are evolving into hedging tools to avoid traditional market volatility.

Institutional behavior speaks the loudest. BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF has seen its largest single-day net inflow for three consecutive months, with the entire US spot Bitcoin ETF market absorbing over $470 million in a single day. BitMEX co-founder even predicts that crypto liquidity is rebounding, and a new round of capital allocation is spreading along the path of "Bitcoin → mainstream coins → high-quality projects."

From a technical perspective, the correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar is strengthening, and its safe-haven attributes are increasingly evident, bringing it closer to the market position of gold. The Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates would normally suppress expectations of "liquidity injection," but in the long run, a stable policy environment actually creates a clear framework for institutional deployment. Institutions increasing their positions can help solidify a bottom for the market.

Therefore, the key is not the Fed not cutting rates itself, but that this signal may force institutions to accelerate their decision-making. The focus should be on the wording changes in the Fed's policy statements and the direction of inflation data. Based on current capital flows and market logic, the crypto market is likely to find a new window for layout amid volatility.