2026-01-12 03:22:01

Recently, market sentiment has been clearly polarized. Whether in macro expectations or specific market trends, I personally was not optimistic about interest rate cuts before May. What does this mean? It indicates that short-term liquidity is unlikely to increase significantly, and the current upward momentum has limited support.

From a technical perspective, it is more prudent to focus on high positions as the main trading arena. Waiting for a key support level to short is my approach. The ongoing disputes among market participants will only further intensify price volatility, so investors should be cautious of this uncertainty.

It is worth noting that there has been no influx of new funds into ETFs recently. Without new growth narratives or liquidity expansion, a bullish trend will be difficult to sustain. This is a realistic constraint.

Regarding allocation strategies, I personally favor precious metals like gold and silver. They tend to provide relative stability in environments of policy disturbances and market volatility.

As for Bitcoin, my deployment strategy is as follows—if the price drops from the all-time high at 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% discounts, I will gradually build spot positions. The goal is to hold long-term for 1-2 years, aiming for several times the upside potential.

An additional judgment: if policymakers experience involuntary changes, the market could face a deep decline. At that time, even at 50% discounts, I might not rush to buy the dip. Conversely, gold might surge significantly.

All of the above are personal opinions and should not be taken as investment advice. Market risks are borne by the investors.

BTC-1,71%

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ChainProspector

· 01-13 14:39

Liquidity is really a problem; without new funds entering the market, relying solely on trading existing assets is a bit risky. To put it simply, it's a matter of waiting. There's a high chance of a false move at the high levels. Gold is a safer hedge option, but Bitcoin still requires patience to gradually lower the position.

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HashBrownies

· 01-13 11:09

No liquidity, no narrative either. How long can this rally last? --- The rate cut is nowhere in sight, I'm really convinced. Might as well lie flat and watch the show in the short term. --- I just want to know when new funds will start flowing into ETFs. I've been waiting so long I fell asleep. --- Gold and silver are indeed stable this time, much better than being cut up and down here. --- Starting to build positions at 50% off? Bro, I get the feeling you're licking blood from a knife. --- When the policy flips, I guess we won't even touch the bottom. Reality is a bit suffocating. --- High-level trading sounds good, but I'm just afraid of getting caught at the top. --- Don't expect a bull miracle without new funds entering the market. Probability theory tells me it's time to go short. --- A 1-2 year cycle, sounds easy, but who doesn't want to operate practically? It's just that the mindset is easily shattered.

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LiquidationKing

· 01-12 03:42

Liquidity exhaustion is really well said; it is indeed a situation of high-level oscillation right now. --- The ETF has no new funds coming in, which really explains the problem. --- The policy change statement was excellent; when the time comes to bottom fish, it will all depend on luck. --- I agree with the idea of gold as a safe haven; it's much more stable than going all-in on BTC. --- 50%, 40%, 30%... easy to say, but when prices actually drop to those levels, the market will have already collapsed. --- Being pessimistic is correct; right now, it's just waiting for the rate cut trigger. --- It's true that the bulls can't hold on; without narratives and funds, it's dead. --- This wave of shorting at high levels is indeed smarter than contrarian bottom fishing.

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ZKSherlock

· 01-12 03:41

actually... the liquidity argument here is kinda hand-wavy ngl. where's the cryptographic proof of this "no new inflows" claim? seems like people just pattern-matching past cycles without examining the underlying trust assumptions

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RugPullSurvivor

· 01-12 03:33

I actually don't buy into the logic of gradually building a spot position. It still feels too optimistic. To put it simply, no new funds means no new funds. Relying on technical analysis to lay the foundation for a bottom isn't very meaningful. As for gold, I do agree; at least it has less volatility.

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LiquidationOracle

· 01-12 03:29

No new funds coming in, the bulls can't hold up, this wave feels a bit weak. --- Before May, it's really hard to say; liquidity is indeed a hidden concern. --- Wait for support levels before taking action, no rush. --- I'm also paying attention to gold and silver; they are indeed good for risk mitigation. --- The idea of building Bitcoin positions gradually is good, just worried about sudden policy changes. --- It's really awkward that no one is buying new coins in ETFs. --- When a fight breaks out, could it actually be an opportunity for precious metals? That makes sense.

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