The latest stance change by the Federal Reserve is worth noting. Powell recently stated that the current interest rate level is already in the neutral zone, in his words, "installing a bumper" for the economy. After a cumulative 75 basis points cut in 2025, the Fed's policy style has shifted from bold moves to fine-tuning—which is quite an interesting transition.

However, the reality is still somewhat complex. Inflation is indeed still burning; the PCE data shows 2.8%, still quite a distance from the 2% target. On the employment front, it appears stable, but corporate hiring intentions are clearly declining, and this contradictory situation harbors dual risks. The Fed's current situation is like walking a tightrope—trying to control inflation while protecting employment, and even a slight imbalance could lead to a fall.

Interestingly, the Fed has stated that there is no preset policy path and that they will follow the data completely. This means every report on inflation and employment could change the policy direction. Regarding the outlook for 2026, the market generally holds a cautiously optimistic attitude. If tax cuts, rate cuts, and regulatory easing can work together, they might boost growth. But rising industry concentration and weak market sentiment are also hidden risks that cannot be ignored.

In simple terms, don't expect the Fed to aggressively accelerate. They need to find a delicate balance between controlling inflation and maintaining growth, and this process will be very subtle.