Rule changes at the critical moment: How the Trove sale event caused traders to lose over $70,000

Trove suddenly updated its rules at the last minute of the token sale, announcing a delay first and then canceling it, causing Polymarket traders to be trapped in a short period of time. One trader invested $89,000 trying to earn a small profit of $200, but ended up facing a loss of over $73,000. This incident exposed the information risk and manipulation potential in prediction markets.

Timeline of Events: From Delay to Cancellation Chaos

According to the latest news, Trove updated the contract 5 minutes before the end of the token sale, extending the deposit deadline from the original time to January 20. This sudden change immediately triggered market reactions.

Subsequently, large buy orders from project-related wallets appeared on the Polymarket order book, ranging between 100,000 and 300,000 shares. Soon after, Trove announced on X platform that the sale was extended by 5 days, causing the odds in the high fundraising range to soar.

But a quick turn occurred. The project team then posted a new message stating that the delay decision was canceled, maintaining the original plan. This back-and-forth within a short period trapped many traders in difficult positions.

A Trader’s Loss Story

The most direct victim was the trader who invested funds near the close. This trader invested $89,000, with the original goal of earning just $200 in profit. But due to the rule changes and market reversals, this investment now faces a loss of over $73,000.

This is not just a simple trading failure. The trader made investment decisions based on the announcement of the delay, but the rules were later overturned, making him a direct victim of this change.

Project Background: Why This Event Has a Greater Impact

According to relevant information, Trove is a new project that gained widespread attention in early 2026. The project’s ICO fundraising performed strongly, raising over $4 million against a target of $2.5 million, exceeding the goal by 160%.

Such fundraising success reflected high market expectations for Trove. The project mainly focuses on collectibles prediction markets, planning to support price prediction trading for assets like Pokémon cards and cultural commodities. This innovative direction received enthusiastic market response.

However, due to the project’s popularity and investor expectations, the sudden change in sale rules appeared even more abrupt.

What Does This Reflect?

Asymmetric Information Risk

The timing of the rule change was critical—only 5 minutes before the sale ended. This meant most traders did not have enough time to reassess and adjust their strategies. The appearance of large buy orders from project-related wallets further exacerbated information asymmetry.

Manipulation Risks in Prediction Markets

This incident also highlights the potential for manipulation within prediction markets. When project teams or related participants can influence market information flow, it creates risks of unfair trading.

The Importance of Rule Stability

Changing rules at critical moments of the sale, whether delaying or canceling the delay, can harm participants who rely on these rules to make decisions. This underscores the need for project teams to exercise greater caution in major decisions.

Impact on the Trove Project

Although Trove’s product concept and fundraising achievements are impressive, this sale incident may impact the project’s reputation. Market participants will likely scrutinize the project team’s decision-making ability and risk management more carefully.

For a newly funded project, this is a serious issue. How to explain this rule change and how to communicate with affected traders and investors will influence Trove’s subsequent market trust.

Summary

The Trove sale incident reminds us of several key issues in prediction markets and ICO participation: first, that information changes at critical market moments can cause significant losses; second, that information asymmetry and manipulation risks in prediction markets require ongoing attention; third, that the stability of rules and transparency in decision-making are vital for market trust.

For traders, this is also a lesson—even seemingly stable sale rules can change at the last minute. For project teams, the problems exposed by this incident need to be taken seriously to maintain market trust and project reputation.