#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 1.12 Morning Market Observation: Silver opened high and then pulled back, driven by two opposing forces—one from macroeconomic data, the other from industrial demand.

On the macro side, the US December core PCE price index was released at 2.8% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, but down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. This data signals to the market that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in Q2 2026 is increasing. As a result, the US dollar index retreated to around 101.8, which is positive for precious metals like silver—when the dollar is weaker, metals become cheaper, right?

The industrial side is even more interesting. The latest data from the Silver Institute shows that global silver demand in the photovoltaic sector will increase by 15% year-over-year in 2025, with a further 20% growth in PV installations in 2026. In other words, industrial demand for silver is expanding. Meanwhile, supply pressures are mounting—major silver mining companies saw a 3.2% decrease in output in Q1 compared to the previous quarter, tightening supply. The supply-demand imbalance is taking shape.

This early correction is a normal adjustment within the trend, creating a relatively favorable opportunity for low-cost buying.

Trading Strategy:
Consider entering around 82.3. Technically, this is a confluence of support at the hourly Bollinger middle band, moving averages, and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement—this is the first key support during a pullback.

To average down, 81.4 is the second entry zone. It corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a normal correction depth within the trend, and it aligns with the upper boundary of the consolidation platform on January 10. Importantly, the hourly moving average golden cross has not been broken, so the trend continuation probability remains above 80%.

Stop-loss at 80.5. This is a triple support level: the lower Bollinger band on the hourly chart, the lower boundary of the previous consolidation platform, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. If broken, the hourly MACD will form a death cross, KDJ will enter oversold territory, and the bullish structure will be broken, requiring an exit.

Target reference: go long at 82.3, add at 81.4, and defend at 80.5, aiming for the 84-86 range.

This is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice.