XRP Shows Intriguing Technical Setup: 70 Days Below Key Moving Average Sparks Historical Comparisons

XRP is currently trading at $2.07, down 1.61% over the past 24 hours, with a circulating market cap of $125.65B. The digital asset has faced consistent headwinds since early October, when broader cryptocurrency market volatility eroded more than $1.3 trillion in total market capitalization. XRP mirrored this downturn, surrendering significant value as the $2 psychological support level collapsed in mid-December, setting off a cascade of liquidations.

Yet beneath the surface weakness, technical specialists have identified a recurring pattern that warrants closer examination. XRP has now traded beneath its 50-week simple moving average for approximately 10 consecutive weekly candles—roughly 70 days—a timeframe that historically preceded substantial price recoveries across multiple market cycles.

A Pattern Embedded in Historical Data

The repetition of this technical structure across three major market phases offers compelling context. In 2018, following XRP’s collapse from early-year peaks, the asset spent several weeks below the 50-week SMA before mounting a recovery that eventually delivered over 200% gains. A similar scenario unfolded in late 2021, when XRP fell beneath this moving average and remained there for approximately 49 days before rallying—though the subsequent recovery was more modest than 2018’s performance, still registering meaningful upside.

The most dramatic illustration came in 2024. XRP stayed below the 50-week SMA for 84 consecutive days—the longest duration on record—yet the ensuing rally produced an extraordinary 850% advance, catapulting XRP toward fresh cycle highs. This recent episode has become the reference point for analysts tracking the current technical configuration.

Decoding the 70-Day Threshold

What distinguishes these periods is their duration relative to price outcomes. Analyst research suggests that when XRP’s weekly close remains beneath the 50-week SMA for 50 to 84 days, a reversal phase typically activates. The current 70-day count positions XRP in the middle range of this historical window, implying several additional weeks of potential pressure before a definitive inflection point emerges.

Technical momentum indicators strengthen this narrative. The Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence have both begun signaling reduced selling intensity, a hallmark of stabilization phases that often precede directional breakouts. While these readings do not guarantee immediate appreciation, their appearance alongside the extended 50-week SMA undercut mirrors patterns observed before past rallies.

The Unresolved Question

Projecting specific price targets based on historical precedent remains speculative, particularly given the wide range of prior outcomes (70% to 850%). Market conditions, institutional positioning, and macro sentiment will ultimately dictate whether XRP replicates the 2024 pattern or reverts to the more modest 2021 scenario.

What remains certain is that the current technical structure aligns with a setup that has preceded meaningful recoveries in multiple past instances. For traders monitoring XRP’s technical positioning, the 50-week SMA interaction continues to represent a focal point as the asset approaches a potential turning point.