Shiba Inu: Between Hope and Skepticism – What Whale Activities and Falling Exchange Holdings Really Mean

The SHIB token remains in a technical weakness phase. Since its yearly high, the price has fallen by over 70 percent, significantly underperforming leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Solana. The key question for many investors is: Can Shiba Inu recover if the fundamental indicators suggest improvements?

Positive Market Signals: Exchange Reserves Decrease, Large Investors Act

Current market data indicate a trend reversal. According to analyses by Nansen, exchange holdings have decreased by 21 percent over the past 30 days – a strong sign that holders are not panic-selling their positions. Instead, they are moving their SHIB holdings into self-custody wallets, which suggests long-term thinking.

The absolute amount is impressive: currently, 288 trillion Shiba Inu coins are stored on exchanges – down from a peak of 366 trillion this month. This makes SHIB one of the top tokens where investors actively withdraw their holdings from centralized platforms.

Another important factor is the growing whale activity. Large addresses have significantly increased their accumulation: they now hold over 96 billion SHIB, an increase of only 1.36 billion since December – a rise of nearly 7,000 percent. This is not behavior typical of NPC-like investors following herd mentality, but of strategic market participants. Additionally, the top 100 addresses have increased their holdings by 10.3 percent in the last 30 days.

Technical Reality: Downtrend Remains Dominant

The chart technical situation tells a different story. SHIB continues to trade below the 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages and under the supertrend indicator. The price is in a pronounced descending channel marked by the highs of May, July, and September.

As long as the token remains within this channel and below the moving averages, the bear trend continues. A breakthrough above these resistance zones could allow further gains up to the 0.000012 dollar mark. Conversely, a fall below the lower channel line would signal further downward movements – a clear sign that selling pressure is regaining dominance.

Do Not Underestimate the Risks

Despite positive fundamental data, there are significant counterarguments:

Meme Coin Sector Under Pressure: The trend in the meme coin niche is negative. Even established projects like Dogecoin continue their downward trend this year. This indicates structural weakness across the entire sector, not just with Shiba Inu.

Macroeconomic Headwinds: The upcoming interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan could weigh on the overall crypto market and hit risky assets like meme coins harder.

Long-term Bear Market Context: The price shows no clear signs of recovery in the broader trend. Technical indicators still argue against a trend reversal.

Conclusion: Caution Against FOMO Buying

Whale activity and decreasing exchange reserves are positive indicators supporting sustainable buying interest. However, the technical condition remains fragile. Those entering today should be aware that this is a speculative move – not a safe shortcut to profits, but a bet on a possible trend reversal that has not yet been confirmed.