Bitcoin price ceiling struggles with selling pressure from holders at a loss

The current situation in the Bitcoin market clearly demonstrates a conflict between the intentions of futures market buyers and the actual improvement in the spot market. Entering the holiday season, the market is struggling with decreasing liquidity and defensive positioning of participants, which makes it difficult to break through significant resistance levels.

Demand from the futures market is not enough to push the price higher

The last trading session revealed an asymmetry in market forces. While leveraged derivative holders drove the increase, pushing Bitcoin above $90,200, the actual buying activity in the spot market proved insufficient to sustain the upward momentum. Data on the aggregated delta volume clearly show that open interest in perpetual contracts first increased, and then — as selling pressure from losing holders intensified — prices returned to around $86,600.

This scenario is symptomatic of an indecisive market, where speculation does not translate into real investor demand. There is a lack of structural interest in acquiring Bitcoin, and each rise only fuels leveraged positions, which are easily sold at the first signs of weakness.

Massive supply blocks the way to growth

Analysts from Glassnode point to a dense supply structure stretching between $93,000 and $120,000, which constitutes a significant barrier for bulls. Key resistance levels are at $95,000 (where mid-term holders start to realize losses) and at $101,500, where yields for short-term holders are anchored.

It is also noteworthy that the average purchase price of active investors is $81,500. This cushion has so far absorbed selling pressure, preventing deep declines, but questions about its durability are becoming increasingly relevant.

Holiday season worsens the situation

Decreasing liquidity in the period leading up to holiday breaks usually amplifies volatility and narrows trading volume. BTC has been trading around $90,960 in recent days with minimal change of -0.04% over the day. This stagnation perfectly reflects current market sentiment — investors are waiting for catalysts rather than actively building positions.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s rate hike this week may strengthen capital outflows from risk-taking assets toward traditional financial instruments. Such a scenario would be particularly unfavorable for Bitcoin in the current low-liquidity environment.

Can bearish sentiment change?

Ryan Yoon from Tiger Research suggests that until positive macroeconomic data appear (such as a decline in inflation indicated by CPI), prospects for a quick Bitcoin rally remain weak until the end of 2025. However, if upcoming indicators are favorable, even short-term market relief could ease pressure and open space for consolidation at higher levels.

Bitcoin’s price ceiling is thus determined not by lack of interest, but by investor pragmatism waiting for better conditions. The market is fragile, and every move requires a huge effort to shift the price even by a few hundred dollars.