Trump announces $200 billion bond purchase plan. Can Ethereum (ETH) break through the key resistance at 3130?

Macroeconomic Policy Shift: Liquidity Expectations Rise

The Trump administration announced a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program, referred to by the market as “administrative-level quantitative easing.” This move aims to lower mortgage rates and stimulate the real estate market but essentially injects liquidity into the financial system. Although the policy targets the housing market, the anticipated funds have boosted overall risk asset sentiment, thereby also uplifting the cryptocurrency market.

Meanwhile, rumors about the Federal Reserve chair nomination are fueling market expectations of interest rate cuts. The combination of easing signals and liquidity expectations has indeed created a favorable environment for high-risk assets in the short term.

Real-Time Market: Range-bound Fluctuations Await Breakthrough

According to the latest data, Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around $3,110, with a 24-hour change of -0.13%. After experiencing a low near $3,050 last night, the price rebounded above $3,110 but has yet to effectively break through the key resistance at $3,130.

Currently, the market shows a clear range-bound pattern, with buying and selling pressures oscillating between $3,100 and $3,130. Trading volume has significantly decreased, and momentum indicators are weakening, reflecting market participants’ hesitation about the future direction.

Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels

The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is approximately at $3,111, with the current price operating near this middle line. The narrowing of the upper and lower bands indicates a contraction in volatility, suggesting the market is brewing for a directional move.

From candlestick structures, $3,130 is a critical point determining the next trend—if the price stabilizes above this level, an upward channel could open; if it falls below the $3,100 support, a retest of the $3,080–$3,050 zone is possible. The shrinking volume means that any directional move will require stronger catalysts to develop.

Trading Strategy and Risk Reminder

Bullish Approach: If ETH can hold above $3,130 and break through successfully, consider a light long position with a short-term target of $3,200. Pay close attention to the performance of US stocks and macro sentiment for further developments.

Bearish Defense: If the price drops below the $3,100 support, it may revisit the $3,080–$3,050 area. In this case, wait for signs of stabilization before re-entering positions, avoiding heavy short positions in uncertain zones.

While policy easing provides positive expectations, actual capital inflows take time to materialize. Concerns about the sustainability of policy support will likely persist. The most prudent approach at this stage is to remain patient, waiting for the market to signal a clear trend rather than reacting to short-term volatility.