Liquidity and PMI: The True Pillars of Bitcoin Movement, According to Ran Neuner

The renowned analyst Ran Neuner has questioned the four-year cycle theory in Bitcoin, arguing that it is not the decisive factor in price movements as many believe. According to his perspective, the belief in predetermined cycles driven by halving is based on just three historical data points, making it a weak premise for making investment decisions.

What really moves Bitcoin?

Ran Neuner maintains that the true catalysts for price fluctuations in Bitcoin are global liquidity and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Historical analysis of the cryptocurrency’s price reveals a pattern more consistent with changes in central banks’ monetary policy and PMI readings than with halving events. This observation suggests that investors should pay more attention to macroeconomic factors than to predetermined cycles.

The risk of following unfounded theories

A critical aspect of Ran Neuner’s warning is the danger faced by retail investors. Those who base their strategies on the traditional halving cycle risk liquidating their positions at times of maximum pessimism, selling their digital assets at depressed prices while institutional investors accumulate advantageous positions. This dynamic could perpetuate unfavorable cycles for small investors.

Liquidity as the market compass

In conclusion, Ran Neuner emphasizes that understanding the dynamics of liquidity in global markets is more fundamental for predicting Bitcoin movements than adhering to cyclical theories based on limited data. The interaction between liquidity, central monetary policy measures, and business sentiment measured by the PMI provides a more reliable framework for navigating the cryptocurrency market.