Gold Analysis: Will the yellow metal succeed in breaking resistance amid dollar declines? - January 9, 2026

Current Trading Outlook: Correction or Buying Opportunity?

Friday’s trading session showed mixed movements in gold, with the spot price declining by 0.2% to reach $4,469 per ounce, while maintaining weekly gains of over 3% on a broader basis. This dual movement reflects a clear struggle between two opposing forces: upward pressure from the rising US dollar and profit-taking on one side, and structural support from interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks on the other.

As the market awaits today’s US employment data, gold remains in a state of exhausted momentum, with February futures slightly down to trade near $4,477, indicating a lack of clear stability before the release of labor market figures.

Key Factors Influencing the Movement

The US dollar imposes its agenda on the market

The US dollar continues to exert increasing pressure on dollar-denominated assets, primarily gold. This rise is partly attributed to political developments, especially the anticipation of the US Supreme Court decision regarding the President’s authority to impose tariffs. This uncertainty drives investors to seek refuge in the US dollar as a safe haven, boosting demand and making gold relatively less attractive, especially for buyers using other currencies.

The inverse relationship between the dollar and gold is not only economic but also psychological. A rising dollar redirects capital flows toward dollar-denominated assets, reducing demand for non-yielding precious metals.

Mixed Federal Reserve signals trigger volatility

Federal Reserve Chair Stephen Miran issued statements indicating an expected cut of up to 150 basis points during 2026. These comments put gold on a potential upward trajectory in the medium term, as lowering interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.

However, divergence in Miran’s messages compared to other Fed members creates uncertainty, prompting traders to price multiple scenarios rather than a single definitive one. This ambiguity translates into highly volatile trading movements.

Economic growth forecasts weaken hedging arguments

Fitch Ratings raised its US GDP growth outlook, indicating better-than-expected economic resilience. This relative improvement diminishes the urgent need for defensive hedging, although the global environment remains highly uncertain.

Geopolitical tensions support institutional demand

Amid ongoing disputes in the South China Sea and political pressures on oil-producing countries, gold remains an essential hedge tool. These factors sustain structural demand for the metal, supporting prices regardless of daily fluctuations.

Technical Map: Where is Gold Heading?

Gold is attempting to regain its balance after a clear corrective move. The price has retreated from record highs toward the $4,430-$4,420 range, an old demand zone. This pullback reflects a temporary repricing within a longer-term bullish trend.

Momentum indicators suggest a temporary easing:

• MACD indicator is moving in a bearish trajectory with a negative crossover, confirming a shift from momentum accumulation to a temporary unwind phase.
• RSI indicator trades around 50-60, a neutral zone reflecting ongoing selling pressure without entering deep oversold territory.

Key technical levels:

Resistance levels to watch: $4,570, $4,640, and $4,700

Critical support levels: $4,370, $4,290, and $4,220

The overall trend remains bullish on larger timeframes, while the short-term appears to be in a natural correction phase rather than a trend reversal.

Scheduled Events Today and Their Potential Impact

December US Employment Report: This report is a pivotal point for assessing monetary policy direction. Weak employment figures support rate cuts and increase gold demand.

Federal Reserve Member Thomas Barkin’s speech: May clarify the central bank’s future outlook on interest rates; any signals of easing will support prices.

US Consumer Confidence Index: Weak confidence typically boosts demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Extended Outlook: Where Is the Price Heading?

Major financial institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook. HSBC predicts that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce during the first half of 2026, driven by rising global risks and debt levels. However, the bank has lowered its average annual forecast to $4,587, with an expected trading range between $3,950 and $5,050 during the year, indicating significant potential volatility.

Institutions like Morgan Stanley and UBS expect gold to sustain elevated trading levels, with a possibility of reaching key resistance near $4,800 in Q4, provided fundamental factors such as rate cut expectations and geopolitical pressures persist.

Recommended Trading Strategy

Based on technical and fundamental analysis combined, it is advised to:

For buyers: Focus on selective buying near support zones around $4,370-$4,290, with strict risk management and clear stop-loss levels.

For sellers: Tactical short-term selling limited to weak rebounds below resistance levels, waiting for the price to stabilize above $4,491.95 as a signal of renewed bullish momentum.

Summary: Gold is undergoing a healthy correction within a long-term bullish trend, and current dips present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, provided global risks remain elevated and rate cut prospects stay on the table.